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Ride-the-Wave Strategy – Best for Stock Traders

Ride-the-Wave targets multi-day price momentum following a company’s earnings announcement (EA). With this strategy:

  1. Buy a stock one day post-EA if a stock reacts positively post-earnings:
    1. Near the close of trading the EA-day for a pre-market-EA
    2. Near the close of the following day for a post-market-EA
  2. Sell-to-close after 7-10 days, or possibly earlier if a desired price target is reached

Similarly,

  1. short a stock one day post-EA if a stock reacts negatively post-earnings:
    1. near the close of trading the EA-day for a premarket-EA
    2. near the close of the following day for a post-market-EA
  2. then buy-to-close after 7-10 days, or possibly earlier if a desired price target is reached

Important: Ride-the-Wave is predicated on significant price momentum triggered by an EA. The 7-10 day scenario is the maximum trade hold-time. If you see post EA-momentum is halted or reversed by a significant opposite move, re-evaluate your presence in the trade.

This popular StockEarnings screen below will give you a list of stocks that historically exhibit significant price momentum following an EA for the next seven days:

  1. Stocks exhibiting positive post-EA price moves are buy-candidates
  2. Stocks exhibiting negative post-EA price moves are sell/short-candidates

The screen includes those stocks whose Earnings just came out in last two days.

Screen criteria:

  1. Earnings Date Start Date : Current Date + -1 Day
  2. Earnings Date End Date : Current Date + -2 Days
  3. Predicted Move (Next Day) Max : 7%
  4. Predicted Move (On 7th Day) Min : 7%

Strategy Guideline:

  1. Buy the stock if stock has reacted positively. Short the stock if stock has reacted negatively (see above).
  2. Close the position in 7-10 days, or possibly earlier based on price move.

Volatility Crush Strategy - Best for Options Traders

The Volatility Crush strategy is used with stocks that typically experience relatively low-to-moderate price moves (≤4%) following their Earnings Announcements (EA). The basic trade idea is to sell put or call options right before the EA, collecting a credit when options premium is very high due to elevated implied volatility (IV). You then close the position right after the EA by buying the option back much cheaper due to the significant drop in IV that occurs after the mystery of the EA disappears. In assessing this trade, you need to do your homework to ensure you collect sufficient premium to make the trade worthwhile.

This trade is practical due to the low-to-moderate price-move after the EA, which generally won’t significantly affect the options price, unlike an “action” stock, which experience great price moves post-EA. With these symbols, if you’re on the right side of the price move, that’s a great thing. But if you’re on the wrong side of the move, not so great. Consequently, by minimizing the effect of the post-EA price move, you have a much better chance to profit from the reduction in IV without it being ruined by a violent price move.

For this trade, open the position either (1) the night before the EA when the company announces earnings or (2) during the EA day when it announces post-market, generally capturing IV at or close to its peak.

For this trade, open the position either (1) the night before the EA when the company announces earnings or (2) during the EA day when it announces post-market, generally capturing IV at or close to its peak.

This popular stockearnings screen will give you a list of stocks which do not react more than 4% fpost-EA. It includes only those stocks whose earnings are releasing next day.

Screen criteria:

  1. Earnings Date Start Date : Current Date + 1
  2. Earnings Date End Date : Current Date + 1
  3. Predicted Move (Next Day) Max : 4%
  4. Options Type: Weekly

Strategy Guideline:

  1. Options Strategy: Sell Call and Put
  2. Options Strike Price: Current Stock Price – (% Predicated Move x 2)
  3. Expiration Date: It should generally be the closest expiry immediately after the EA.
  4. Buy Insurance: Buying back Call and Put at Strike price which 10% lower than Sell Strike Price is optional but recommended.

Watch Video for More Detail

Volatility Rush Strategy - Best for Options Traders

The Volatility Rush takes advantage of increasing options premiums into earnings announcements (EA) caused by an anticipated rise in Implied Volatility (IV). With this strategy, Buy a Call and Put at-the-money (a long straddle) 2-3 weeks before the EA when IV is lower. Sell the position either (1) the night before the EA when the company announces earnings pre-market, or (2) during the EA day when it announces post-market, generally capturing IV at or close to its peak.

This popular screen will give you a list of stocks whose Options premiums tend to rise into Earnings. It includes only those stocks whose Earnings are at least two weeks away from today.

Screen criteria:

  1. Earnings Date Start Date : Current Date + 15 Days
  2. Earnings Date End Date : Current Date + 30 Days
  3. Predicted Move (Next Day) Min : 5%
  4. Options Type: Weekly or Monthly if that lines up with the two to three-week lead-time for entering the trade

Strategy Guideline:

  1. Buy a Straddle at or close to the money two to three weeks pre-EA.
  2. Sell the position either the night before the EA when the company announces earnings pre-market, or during the EA day when it announces post-market.
  3. Expiration date should generally be the closest expiry immediately after the EA.
  4. Straddle price should not be more 60% of predicted move.

Predicted Move (Volatility)

Similar to Implied Volatility in Options. Expected volatility % based on our Proprietary Volatility Predication Model. We are expecting that stock price will likely to reach % in either direction by the end of next trading session after Earnings are released and not necessarily the closing volatility %.

Why is it important?

    This indicator helps

  1. Knowing expected volatility in stocks after Earnings helps to decide trading stocks before Earnings Announcement.
  2. Taking Advantage of volatility collapse following Earnings Results by using Advance Options strategies such as Spread and Straddles.

Since Last Earnings

Change in share price since last Earnings release.

Why is it Important?

When share has gained more than 10% since it's last Earning release, it tends to over react to minor bad news and give up some gains if not all. So, it contains more downside volatility than upside When share has dropped more than 10% since it's last Earning release, it tends to over react to minor good news and recover some drops if not all. So, it contains more upside volatility than downside.

EPS Surprise (%)

Occurs when a company's reported quarterly or annual profits are above or below analysts' expectations. Here is the formula to derive % EPS Surprice:

Actual EPS - Estimated EPS
------------------------------------- x 100
Estimated EPS

Why is it Important?

Earnings surprises can have a huge impact on a company's stock price. Several studies suggest that positive earnings surprises not only lead to an immediate hike in a stock's price, but also to a gradual increase over time. Hence, it's not surprising that some companies are known for routinely beating earning projections. A negative earnings surprise will usually result in a decline in share price.

Next Day Price Change (%)

Next Regular trading session Closing price following Earnings result.

For After Market Close Earnings, It is a next trading day closing price. For Before Market Open Earnings, It is the same trading day closing price.

Why is it Important?

Next Day price change is a reaction of Earnings result.

NVIDIA’s $150B Buyback Is the Headline. Its Cash Machine Is the Story

Posted on Sep 28, 2026 by Chris Markoch

NVIDIA’s $150B Buyback Is the Headline. Its Cash Machine Is the Story

NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA) just set a record Wall Street will be talking about for years. On September 28, the board approved a $150 billion increase to its stock buyback program. It is the largest increase to a buyback authorization ever announced by a public company.

The new money raises NVIDIA’s remaining authorization to $235 billion. Management expects to complete the full program through fiscal 2028. The old record belonged to Apple, which added $110 billion to its buyback in 2024.

Investors cheered. NVDA shares rose 1.9% Monday morning, even as the broader tech sector slumped.

nvidia - StockEarnings

But the buyback itself is a short story. An authorization is permission, not a promise. NVIDIA will still set the pace based on its share price, cash needs, and investment plans.

The bigger story is the cash engine behind it. NVIDIA now generates enough cash to reward shareholders, fund its growth, and bankroll much of the AI ecosystem. Few companies in history have done all three at once. That raises a fair question for investors. Which other AI leaders have balance sheets strong enough to play the same game?

The Buyback Is a Valuation Statement



Buybacks say a lot about how management views its own stock. NVIDIA trades at about 24 times forward earnings, not far above the S&P 500’s 20-times multiple. That’s a modest premium for a company still doubling revenue.

This is a classic perception-versus-fundamentals gap. The market prices NVIDIA like a cyclical chipmaker nearing a peak. Management is pricing it like a platform company early in a long cycle. In the release, Jensen Huang said the authorization reflects his confidence in the long-term opportunity ahead.

Following the Cash: $70 Billion in Six Months

The fundamentals back up that confidence. Second-quarter revenue hit $96.2 billion, up 106% from a year ago. Free cash flow for the first six months totaled $69.9 billion.

nvidia - StockEarnings

NVIDIA returned about $26 billion to shareholders in the second quarter through buybacks and dividends. It ended the quarter with $22.4 billion in cash and $34.1 billion in marketable debt securities.

There is one wrinkle worth watching. Second-quarter free cash flow fell to $21.3 billion from $48.6 billion the prior quarter. A $22.3 billion jump in accounts receivable drove most of that decline. Growing customers are paying more slowly. Fast growth often looks like this, but it bears monitoring.

The math on the buyback is also ambitious. Spending $235 billion by early 2028 would mean more than $40 billion per quarter. That’s above NVIDIA’s average quarterly free cash flow so far this year. Notably, the company raised about $24.9 billion in new debt during the quarter.

NVIDIA Is Now the AI Economy’s Banker

Buybacks are only half of how NVIDIA deploys its cash. As of July 26, it held $99 billion in equity investments, with another $25 billion committed.

The largest stakes include OpenAI at $30 billion, Anthropic at up to $10 billion, and Safe Superintelligence at $5 billion. Some bets have already paid off handsomely. NVIDIA’s $5 billion stake in Intel was worth over $25 billion within months.

NVIDIA is also helping others finance the buildout. It partnered with Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Brookfield, Goldman Sachs and KKR on platforms aiming to mobilize over $500 billion in third-party capital for AI infrastructure. It also agreed to acquire Hugging Face for $12.9 billion after the quarter closed.

Critics call this circular. NVIDIA backs companies that buy its chips, which some say could inflate valuations across the sector. That concern is valid. But it is also a luxury problem. Only a company with extraordinary cash flow can fund its own customers.

Three More AI Leaders With Deep Pockets

NVIDIA isn’t the only AI company sitting on a cash fortress. But its peers are spending theirs very differently.

Alphabet: The Biggest Cash Pile, Spending Hard

Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL) holds the largest war chest in the group. It had $242.5 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and short-term marketable securities as of June 30.

Yet the headline number spooked some investors. Second-quarter free cash flow was negative $5.9 billion as capital spending of $44.9 billion outran operating cash flow. In June, Alphabet also raised roughly $49.6 billion in equity and $20.3 billion in senior notes to fund AI compute.

The fundamentals tell a better story. Trailing 12-month free cash flow remained positive at $53.3 billion. Google Cloud revenue soared 82% to $24.8 billion. Its cloud backlog reached $514 billion. Alphabet is converting cash into capacity, and the demand appears to be there.

Microsoft: Positive Cash Flow Despite Record Capex

Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) is walking a similar line. Fourth-quarter capital expenditures and finance leases jumped 69% to $41 billion. Even so, the company still produced $19.6 billion in free cash flow.

Operating cash flow for fiscal 2026 rose $46.8 billion to $182.9 billion. Microsoft ended the year with $76.8 billion in cash and short-term investments, plus $36.3 billion in equity and other investments.

Like NVIDIA, Microsoft is profiting from its AI stakes. It booked a $3.2 billion gain on its Anthropic investment last quarter. Management also expects to remain free cash flow positive in fiscal 2027.

Broadcom: A Cash Machine With Almost No Capex

Broadcom (NASDAQ: AVGO) looks most like NVIDIA financially. Both design chips without owning heavy manufacturing. That keeps capital needs low and cash conversion high.

Third-quarter revenue climbed 86% to $29.6 billion. Free cash flow reached $13.7 billion, or 46% of revenue, on just $0.5 billion in capex. Cash rose to $24.0 billion from $19.6 billion a quarter earlier.

AI is the engine. AI semiconductor revenue jumped 221% to $16.7 billion, with $21.7 billion expected next quarter. Broadcom still carries debt from its VMware deal. But its cash flow is growing fast enough to shrink that burden quickly.

Cash Is the New Moat

In the AI race, the balance sheet has become strategy. The companies with the most cash set the pace for everyone else.

NVIDIA stands out because it sells the picks and shovels. It doesn’t have to pour concrete for data centers. That leaves room to buy back stock, invest in partners, and still build its own business.

The market keeps debating whether AI is a bubble. The cash flows suggest something more durable. Investors should still watch receivables and circular deals closely. But a record buyback is hard to fake. It’s a bet management is making with real money.

A former marketing copywriter turned freelance financial writer and market analyst. I have a passion for delivering insights to investors. I write regularly about stocks for StockEarnings and MarketBeat. Posts are not advice.

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