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Ride-the-Wave Strategy – Best for Stock Traders

Ride-the-Wave targets multi-day price momentum following a company’s earnings announcement (EA). With this strategy:

  1. Buy a stock one day post-EA if a stock reacts positively post-earnings:
    1. Near the close of trading the EA-day for a pre-market-EA
    2. Near the close of the following day for a post-market-EA
  2. Sell-to-close after 7-10 days, or possibly earlier if a desired price target is reached

Similarly,

  1. short a stock one day post-EA if a stock reacts negatively post-earnings:
    1. near the close of trading the EA-day for a premarket-EA
    2. near the close of the following day for a post-market-EA
  2. then buy-to-close after 7-10 days, or possibly earlier if a desired price target is reached

Important: Ride-the-Wave is predicated on significant price momentum triggered by an EA. The 7-10 day scenario is the maximum trade hold-time. If you see post EA-momentum is halted or reversed by a significant opposite move, re-evaluate your presence in the trade.

This popular StockEarnings screen below will give you a list of stocks that historically exhibit significant price momentum following an EA for the next seven days:

  1. Stocks exhibiting positive post-EA price moves are buy-candidates
  2. Stocks exhibiting negative post-EA price moves are sell/short-candidates

The screen includes those stocks whose Earnings just came out in last two days.

Screen criteria:

  1. Earnings Date Start Date : Current Date + -1 Day
  2. Earnings Date End Date : Current Date + -2 Days
  3. Predicted Move (Next Day) Max : 7%
  4. Predicted Move (On 7th Day) Min : 7%

Strategy Guideline:

  1. Buy the stock if stock has reacted positively. Short the stock if stock has reacted negatively (see above).
  2. Close the position in 7-10 days, or possibly earlier based on price move.

Volatility Crush Strategy - Best for Options Traders

The Volatility Crush strategy is used with stocks that typically experience relatively low-to-moderate price moves (≤4%) following their Earnings Announcements (EA). The basic trade idea is to sell put or call options right before the EA, collecting a credit when options premium is very high due to elevated implied volatility (IV). You then close the position right after the EA by buying the option back much cheaper due to the significant drop in IV that occurs after the mystery of the EA disappears. In assessing this trade, you need to do your homework to ensure you collect sufficient premium to make the trade worthwhile.

This trade is practical due to the low-to-moderate price-move after the EA, which generally won’t significantly affect the options price, unlike an “action” stock, which experience great price moves post-EA. With these symbols, if you’re on the right side of the price move, that’s a great thing. But if you’re on the wrong side of the move, not so great. Consequently, by minimizing the effect of the post-EA price move, you have a much better chance to profit from the reduction in IV without it being ruined by a violent price move.

For this trade, open the position either (1) the night before the EA when the company announces earnings or (2) during the EA day when it announces post-market, generally capturing IV at or close to its peak.

For this trade, open the position either (1) the night before the EA when the company announces earnings or (2) during the EA day when it announces post-market, generally capturing IV at or close to its peak.

This popular stockearnings screen will give you a list of stocks which do not react more than 4% fpost-EA. It includes only those stocks whose earnings are releasing next day.

Screen criteria:

  1. Earnings Date Start Date : Current Date + 1
  2. Earnings Date End Date : Current Date + 1
  3. Predicted Move (Next Day) Max : 4%
  4. Options Type: Weekly

Strategy Guideline:

  1. Options Strategy: Sell Call and Put
  2. Options Strike Price: Current Stock Price – (% Predicated Move x 2)
  3. Expiration Date: It should generally be the closest expiry immediately after the EA.
  4. Buy Insurance: Buying back Call and Put at Strike price which 10% lower than Sell Strike Price is optional but recommended.

Watch Video for More Detail

Volatility Rush Strategy - Best for Options Traders

The Volatility Rush takes advantage of increasing options premiums into earnings announcements (EA) caused by an anticipated rise in Implied Volatility (IV). With this strategy, Buy a Call and Put at-the-money (a long straddle) 2-3 weeks before the EA when IV is lower. Sell the position either (1) the night before the EA when the company announces earnings pre-market, or (2) during the EA day when it announces post-market, generally capturing IV at or close to its peak.

This popular screen will give you a list of stocks whose Options premiums tend to rise into Earnings. It includes only those stocks whose Earnings are at least two weeks away from today.

Screen criteria:

  1. Earnings Date Start Date : Current Date + 15 Days
  2. Earnings Date End Date : Current Date + 30 Days
  3. Predicted Move (Next Day) Min : 5%
  4. Options Type: Weekly or Monthly if that lines up with the two to three-week lead-time for entering the trade

Strategy Guideline:

  1. Buy a Straddle at or close to the money two to three weeks pre-EA.
  2. Sell the position either the night before the EA when the company announces earnings pre-market, or during the EA day when it announces post-market.
  3. Expiration date should generally be the closest expiry immediately after the EA.
  4. Straddle price should not be more 60% of predicted move.

Predicted Move (Volatility)

Similar to Implied Volatility in Options. Expected volatility % based on our Proprietary Volatility Predication Model. We are expecting that stock price will likely to reach % in either direction by the end of next trading session after Earnings are released and not necessarily the closing volatility %.

Why is it important?

    This indicator helps

  1. Knowing expected volatility in stocks after Earnings helps to decide trading stocks before Earnings Announcement.
  2. Taking Advantage of volatility collapse following Earnings Results by using Advance Options strategies such as Spread and Straddles.

Since Last Earnings

Change in share price since last Earnings release.

Why is it Important?

When share has gained more than 10% since it's last Earning release, it tends to over react to minor bad news and give up some gains if not all. So, it contains more downside volatility than upside When share has dropped more than 10% since it's last Earning release, it tends to over react to minor good news and recover some drops if not all. So, it contains more upside volatility than downside.

EPS Surprise (%)

Occurs when a company's reported quarterly or annual profits are above or below analysts' expectations. Here is the formula to derive % EPS Surprice:

Actual EPS - Estimated EPS
------------------------------------- x 100
Estimated EPS

Why is it Important?

Earnings surprises can have a huge impact on a company's stock price. Several studies suggest that positive earnings surprises not only lead to an immediate hike in a stock's price, but also to a gradual increase over time. Hence, it's not surprising that some companies are known for routinely beating earning projections. A negative earnings surprise will usually result in a decline in share price.

Next Day Price Change (%)

Next Regular trading session Closing price following Earnings result.

For After Market Close Earnings, It is a next trading day closing price. For Before Market Open Earnings, It is the same trading day closing price.

Why is it Important?

Next Day price change is a reaction of Earnings result.

Casey’s 1st Quarter Earnings Reveal Why Slower Same-Store Sales May Mislead

Posted on Sep 10, 2026 by Grayson Cavern

Casey’s 1st Quarter Earnings Reveal Why Slower Same-Store Sales May Mislead

Casey’s General Stores (NASDAQ: CASY) reported $5.68 billion in first-quarter revenue, up 24.3% year over year and ahead of expectations, while diluted EPS jumped 27.7% to $7.37, beating the roughly $6.80 consensus estimate. Net income rose to $273.7 million from $215.4 million, and EBITDA climbed 17.1% to $485.1 million.

Then shares fell roughly 14%, taking CASY toward $630 after spending much of the summer above $800, and the reason isn’t difficult to find as same-store inside sales grew just 3.2%, down from 4.3% a year ago, while same-store fuel gallons fell 0.3%.

That sounds like a growth problem until you look at what happened to the profits coming out of those stores.

Why Did CASY Stock Fall 14%?



The market has become accustomed to Casey’s producing strong comparable-store growth, so a deceleration to 3.2% inside same-store sales gives investors something to worry about, particularly when the company is already trading at a premium valuation.

But Casey’s didn’t need faster traffic to produce faster earnings this quarter.

Inside sales rose 5.6% to $1.78 billion, with prepared food and dispensed beverages leading the business at 4.8% same-store growth, while inside gross profit increased 6.3% and inside margin expanded to 42.2% from 41.9%.

Fuel was even more striking: same-store gallons declined 0.3%, yet fuel gross profit increased 19.6% to $446.9 million because fuel margin widened from 41.0 cents to 47.8 cents per gallon.

So the stock is being punished for slower sales growth while the company is producing more profit from the sales it does generate.

Is the Consumer Actually Weakening at Casey’s?

There are signs of moderation, but the numbers don’t look like customers are abandoning Casey’s.

Prepared food traffic remained positive, led by whole pizzas, and prepared food margin reached 59.3%, up from 58.0% last year. Grocery and general merchandise were slower, with same-store sales up 2.7% versus 3.8%, but non-alcoholic beverages performed well.

Fuel tells a similar story: customers bought slightly fewer gallons at existing stores, but total gallons still increased 2.5% because Casey’s had 64 more stores than a year ago.

casey's - StockEarnings

And this isn’t happening in isolation. Casey’s two-year stack for inside same-store sales is 7.7%, while fuel gallons are still positive 1.4% on the same basis.

I wouldn’t dismiss the slowdown, because a convenience-store business eventually has to prove that higher margins aren’t simply compensating for weaker underlying demand, but there isn’t enough here to call the customer base broken.

How Casey’s Is Squeezing More Profit From Slower Traffic/Spending

The most useful number in this report may be the 47.8-cent fuel margin, because it shows how Casey’s can increase gross profit without needing customers to buy substantially more gasoline.

The same thing is happening inside the stores, where a favorable mix and cost-of-goods management lifted the margin by approximately 30 basis points. Prepared food, with its nearly 60% margin, is becoming increasingly important to the economics of each customer visit.

There is a cost to this strategy, however, and Casey’s operating expenses increased 8% during the quarter. The company’s own expense waterfall attributes roughly 2% to store growth and M&A, 2% to same-store operations, 1.5% to employee expenses, 1.5% to credit-card fees and 1% to other costs.

That is why the earnings growth matters more than the headline sales growth: Casey’s is carrying the costs of expansion while still producing higher margins and a 27.7% increase in EPS.

Why the Future Growth Engine Isn’t Same-Store Sales Alone

Casey’s is building a much larger network underneath those comparable-store figures. The company ended the quarter with 2,959 stores, and its fiscal 2027 plan calls for at least 120 new stores through acquisitions and new construction. Management also expects operating expenses to rise 5–7% this year while EBITDA grows 8–10%.

The Fikes acquisition adds another layer because Casey’s is integrating a wholesale fuel business alongside its retail network, and management said the integration is running ahead of schedule.

That gives Casey’s two ways to grow: make existing stores more profitable and add more stores to the network. It also explains why I don’t think a 3.2% same-store number tells the whole story.

Can the $600 Area Hold, and What Would Get Us Back Above the 200-Day?

The chart is ugly after the earnings reaction. CASY is now well below its 20-day moving average at around $796, its 50-day at around $823, and its 200-day at around $728, with the stock sitting near $630 after breaking decisively below the rising trendline that had supported it through much of 2026.

But the selloff has brought it toward the $600–$630 area, where the stock is beginning to stabilize.

I wouldn’t call the chart bullish yet; reclaiming $728 would be the first meaningful technical improvement, while a move back through $800–$825 would repair much more of the damage.

For now, though, I’m buying CASY. The market is looking at slower same-store sales and seeing a growth problem; I’m seeing a company that just grew EPS nearly 28% while expanding margins, adding stores and integrating a major acquisition. If $600 holds and the stock starts reclaiming those moving averages, I’ll be looking to add rather than chase the next earnings-day reversal.

casey's - StockEarnings

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