Keep an eye on Wayfair (NYSE: W). According to analysts at Bernstein (NYSE: AB), there’s more upside ahead. In fact, the firm believes investors may still be underestimating the company’s momentum, upgrading the stock from Market Perform to Outperform, with a $125 price target.
W shares have already had a strong August after posting better-than-expected second-quarter results. Total revenue reached $3.5 billion, up 7.5% from the same period last year. U.S. revenue jumped 8.7% to $3.1 billion. International revenue declined 1.3%, showing that most of the company’s current growth is coming from the U.S.
Orders were another bright spot.
The company delivered 10.6 million orders during the quarter, an increase of 6% from a year earlier. CEO Niraj Shah said the company experienced its strongest sequential order growth for a second quarter since 2020.
The number of active customers also increased. Wayfair ended June with 21.7 million active customers, up 3.3% year over year. Customers are also spending more, with revenue per active customer increasing 4.2% to $596.
The U.S. Business Is Leading the Way
Bernstein analyst Nikhil Devnani believes Wayfair’s U.S. performance is especially important.
The broader furniture market is not growing much, yet the company’s U.S. revenue is increasing at a high-single-digit rate. That means the company appears to be gaining market share from competitors. Management said U.S. revenue growth was the strongest it has seen during the entire post-COVID period.
Several parts of the business are performing particularly well. Wayfair’s specialty retail brands grew nearly 20% during the quarter, while luxury brand Perigold grew more than 35%.
In addition, the company generated $242 million in adjusted EBITDA during the quarter, representing a 6.9% margin. That was the company’s strongest margin performance since 2021.
Free cash flow was also impressive. Wayfair generated $301 million of free cash flow during the quarter, compared with negative free cash flow in the previous quarter.
What Comes Next?
Wayfair’s outlook for the third quarter is encouraging. Management expects high-single-digit revenue growth for the quarter. Importantly, that forecast does not assume that the broader economy or furniture market will suddenly improve.
Instead, Wayfair expects its own initiatives to drive growth. These include its loyalty program, Wayfair Verified, and its physical store strategy.
The company expects adjusted EBITDA margins of roughly 6% to 7% in the third quarter. Management is also confident that it can eventually reach a 10% margin and potentially go beyond that level. Bernstein also believes the company’s improving cost discipline could make future revenue growth more valuable.
The Bottom Line For Wayfair
Wayfair’s second-quarter results provide several reasons for investors to pay attention.
Revenue is growing, U.S. market share appears to be increasing, customers are becoming more active, and profitability and cash flow are improving. Specialty brands and Perigold are adding another source of growth, while new initiatives such as loyalty programs and stores could provide additional momentum.
For now, management appears confident. With third-quarter revenue growth expected to remain in the high single digits and a longer-term goal of reaching double-digit margins, the company is showing signs that its business may be on a stronger path than many investors previously expected. That combination of growth, improving profitability, and market-share gains is why Wayfair may be a stock worth keeping an eye on.