JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) generated $50.2 billion in third-quarter revenue, yet its stock is struggling to regain its footing after retreating from August’s highs near $365. The bank earned $15.3 billion, or $5.57 per share, with net interest income climbing 13% year over year. Those numbers show a franchise still producing serious earnings power, but the 28% sequential drop in net income gives bears an opening to challenge the bullish thesis.
Now, JPM booked $658 million in net investment securities losses, shaving approximately $0.18 off earnings per share. Excluding that item, net income was $15.8 billion, and EPS was $5.75. The underlying business held up better than the headline suggests, but rising expenses and credit costs made the quarter more complicated than revenue growth alone implies.
Net Interest Income Is Doing the Heavy Lifting
JPMorgan’s net interest income reached $27.1 billion, up 13% from a year earlier. Excluding Markets, NII increased 6%, supported by higher deposit balances, stronger Card Services balances and wholesale loan growth, partly offset by lower interest rates. Average loans rose 10% year over year, while average deposits increased 8%.
That is the kind of growth investors want from a banking giant: a larger lending and deposit base generating recurring income beyond the daily swings in trading revenue. With NII representing more than half of reported revenue, its trajectory will carry considerable weight in the earnings outlook. The 13% headline growth rate is encouraging, although the slower 6% increase excluding Markets gives a more measured picture of the underlying trend.
The other major businesses contributed, too. Markets revenue grew 15%, led by a 49% jump in Equity Markets. Investment banking fees increased 14%, Payments revenue climbed 14%, and Asset & Wealth Management revenue rose 14%, supported by $263 billion in net client inflows.
This breadth helps explain why the quarter still looks solid beneath the sequential decline. JPM is generating income across lending, trading, dealmaking, payments, and wealth management rather than leaning on one business line. The challenge is sustaining that growth as comparisons get tougher, and expenses keep rising.
Expenses Are Eating Into the Growth
Non-interest expenses increased 12% year over year to $27.3 billion, driven by compensation, a larger front-office workforce, marketing, brokerage, and technology costs. Revenue growth remains healthy, but expenses are rising at a pace that limits the operating leverage investors would prefer to see.
Credit costs add another pressure point. JPM reported $2.7 billion in credit costs, including $2.2 billion in net charge-offs and a $539 million reserve build. The provision rose 9% sequentially, even as net charge-offs declined from the prior year.
That does not automatically signal a deteriorating loan book, and the reserve build should not be confused with realized losses. Still, investors need to track whether consumer and wholesale credit remain resilient as the bank expands lending. If credit costs rise while expense growth stays elevated, stronger revenue may translate into less incremental profit.
The securities loss also deserves proportion. At $658 million, it reduced EPS by roughly $0.18; it does not explain the entire sequential decline from $7.70 to $5.57. Excluding the loss, EPS was $5.75, still well below Q2. JPM remains profitable, and its major businesses are growing year over year, but the quarter did not match the prior period’s earnings pace.
JPM Is Testing Support After Losing Momentum
JPM closed at $335, below its 20-day simple moving average at $337.70 and its 50-day average at $349.44, while remaining above the 200-day average at $322.21. The retreat from August’s peak near $365 has weakened short-term momentum, and the stock is now approaching a rising trendline around $330.
The first recovery signal would be a reclaim of $338, followed by a push through $349–$350. That would put the stock back above its 50-day average and improve the odds of a move toward the $360s. On the downside, the $328–$322 area is the support zone to watch. A decisive break below the 200-day average would put the longer-term uptrend under pressure.
The chart leaves JPM at an important juncture. Buyers have not lost the long-term trend, but they need to defend support while the market weighs high recurring income against rising costs and a slower sequential earnings pace.
JPMorgan Chase: The Bull Case Still Has a Foundation
I remain constructive on JPMorgan because its core franchises continue to produce broad-based revenue growth, with net interest income providing a substantial earnings base and Markets, investment banking, and Asset & Wealth Management contributing year-over-year gains. The securities loss makes the headline EPS decline look worse, but the expense trajectory and reserve build deserve scrutiny.
So buying JPM makes sense even when the stock holds the $322–$328 support zone. A reclaim of $349 would improve the technical picture and suggest investors are looking through the one-off loss. A breakdown below $322 would weaken that case, particularly if credit costs and expenses continue to climb. JPM still has the earnings power to support a bullish view, but the stock needs to stabilize before the chart confirms it.
