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Ride-the-Wave Strategy – Best for Stock Traders

Ride-the-Wave targets multi-day price momentum following a company’s earnings announcement (EA). With this strategy:

  1. Buy a stock one day post-EA if a stock reacts positively post-earnings:
    1. Near the close of trading the EA-day for a pre-market-EA
    2. Near the close of the following day for a post-market-EA
  2. Sell-to-close after 7-10 days, or possibly earlier if a desired price target is reached

Similarly,

  1. short a stock one day post-EA if a stock reacts negatively post-earnings:
    1. near the close of trading the EA-day for a premarket-EA
    2. near the close of the following day for a post-market-EA
  2. then buy-to-close after 7-10 days, or possibly earlier if a desired price target is reached

Important: Ride-the-Wave is predicated on significant price momentum triggered by an EA. The 7-10 day scenario is the maximum trade hold-time. If you see post EA-momentum is halted or reversed by a significant opposite move, re-evaluate your presence in the trade.

This popular StockEarnings screen below will give you a list of stocks that historically exhibit significant price momentum following an EA for the next seven days:

  1. Stocks exhibiting positive post-EA price moves are buy-candidates
  2. Stocks exhibiting negative post-EA price moves are sell/short-candidates

The screen includes those stocks whose Earnings just came out in last two days.

Screen criteria:

  1. Earnings Date Start Date : Current Date + -1 Day
  2. Earnings Date End Date : Current Date + -2 Days
  3. Predicted Move (Next Day) Max : 7%
  4. Predicted Move (On 7th Day) Min : 7%

Strategy Guideline:

  1. Buy the stock if stock has reacted positively. Short the stock if stock has reacted negatively (see above).
  2. Close the position in 7-10 days, or possibly earlier based on price move.

Volatility Crush Strategy - Best for Options Traders

The Volatility Crush strategy is used with stocks that typically experience relatively low-to-moderate price moves (≤4%) following their Earnings Announcements (EA). The basic trade idea is to sell put or call options right before the EA, collecting a credit when options premium is very high due to elevated implied volatility (IV). You then close the position right after the EA by buying the option back much cheaper due to the significant drop in IV that occurs after the mystery of the EA disappears. In assessing this trade, you need to do your homework to ensure you collect sufficient premium to make the trade worthwhile.

This trade is practical due to the low-to-moderate price-move after the EA, which generally won’t significantly affect the options price, unlike an “action” stock, which experience great price moves post-EA. With these symbols, if you’re on the right side of the price move, that’s a great thing. But if you’re on the wrong side of the move, not so great. Consequently, by minimizing the effect of the post-EA price move, you have a much better chance to profit from the reduction in IV without it being ruined by a violent price move.

For this trade, open the position either (1) the night before the EA when the company announces earnings or (2) during the EA day when it announces post-market, generally capturing IV at or close to its peak.

For this trade, open the position either (1) the night before the EA when the company announces earnings or (2) during the EA day when it announces post-market, generally capturing IV at or close to its peak.

This popular stockearnings screen will give you a list of stocks which do not react more than 4% fpost-EA. It includes only those stocks whose earnings are releasing next day.

Screen criteria:

  1. Earnings Date Start Date : Current Date + 1
  2. Earnings Date End Date : Current Date + 1
  3. Predicted Move (Next Day) Max : 4%
  4. Options Type: Weekly

Strategy Guideline:

  1. Options Strategy: Sell Call and Put
  2. Options Strike Price: Current Stock Price – (% Predicated Move x 2)
  3. Expiration Date: It should generally be the closest expiry immediately after the EA.
  4. Buy Insurance: Buying back Call and Put at Strike price which 10% lower than Sell Strike Price is optional but recommended.

Watch Video for More Detail

Volatility Rush Strategy - Best for Options Traders

The Volatility Rush takes advantage of increasing options premiums into earnings announcements (EA) caused by an anticipated rise in Implied Volatility (IV). With this strategy, Buy a Call and Put at-the-money (a long straddle) 2-3 weeks before the EA when IV is lower. Sell the position either (1) the night before the EA when the company announces earnings pre-market, or (2) during the EA day when it announces post-market, generally capturing IV at or close to its peak.

This popular screen will give you a list of stocks whose Options premiums tend to rise into Earnings. It includes only those stocks whose Earnings are at least two weeks away from today.

Screen criteria:

  1. Earnings Date Start Date : Current Date + 15 Days
  2. Earnings Date End Date : Current Date + 30 Days
  3. Predicted Move (Next Day) Min : 5%
  4. Options Type: Weekly or Monthly if that lines up with the two to three-week lead-time for entering the trade

Strategy Guideline:

  1. Buy a Straddle at or close to the money two to three weeks pre-EA.
  2. Sell the position either the night before the EA when the company announces earnings pre-market, or during the EA day when it announces post-market.
  3. Expiration date should generally be the closest expiry immediately after the EA.
  4. Straddle price should not be more 60% of predicted move.

Predicted Move (Volatility)

Similar to Implied Volatility in Options. Expected volatility % based on our Proprietary Volatility Predication Model. We are expecting that stock price will likely to reach % in either direction by the end of next trading session after Earnings are released and not necessarily the closing volatility %.

Why is it important?

    This indicator helps

  1. Knowing expected volatility in stocks after Earnings helps to decide trading stocks before Earnings Announcement.
  2. Taking Advantage of volatility collapse following Earnings Results by using Advance Options strategies such as Spread and Straddles.

Since Last Earnings

Change in share price since last Earnings release.

Why is it Important?

When share has gained more than 10% since it's last Earning release, it tends to over react to minor bad news and give up some gains if not all. So, it contains more downside volatility than upside When share has dropped more than 10% since it's last Earning release, it tends to over react to minor good news and recover some drops if not all. So, it contains more upside volatility than downside.

EPS Surprise (%)

Occurs when a company's reported quarterly or annual profits are above or below analysts' expectations. Here is the formula to derive % EPS Surprice:

Actual EPS - Estimated EPS
------------------------------------- x 100
Estimated EPS

Why is it Important?

Earnings surprises can have a huge impact on a company's stock price. Several studies suggest that positive earnings surprises not only lead to an immediate hike in a stock's price, but also to a gradual increase over time. Hence, it's not surprising that some companies are known for routinely beating earning projections. A negative earnings surprise will usually result in a decline in share price.

Next Day Price Change (%)

Next Regular trading session Closing price following Earnings result.

For After Market Close Earnings, It is a next trading day closing price. For Before Market Open Earnings, It is the same trading day closing price.

Why is it Important?

Next Day price change is a reaction of Earnings result.

Top Earnings News

Macy
Macy's (M) Q1 Earnings on the Horizon: Analysts' Insights on Key Performance Measures
May 23 2025 07:21 AM

Get a deeper insight into the potential performance of Macy's (M) for the quarter ended April 2025 by going beyond Wall Street's top -and-bottom-line estimates and examining the estimates for some of its key metrics.

AutoZone Gears Up to Report Q3 Earnings: Here
AutoZone Gears Up to Report Q3 Earnings: Here's What to Expect
May 23 2025 05:10 AM

AZO is expected to have delivered third-quarter growth with strong DIY & commercial sales and store expansion efforts.

These Analysts Revise Their Forecasts On Target Following Q1 Results
These Analysts Revise Their Forecasts On Target Following Q1 Results
May 22 2025 06:46 AM

Target Corporation TGT reported weaker-than-expected first-quarter results on Wednesday.

A Closer Look at Retail Earnings
A Closer Look at Retail Earnings
May 21 2025 04:51 PM

Note: The following is an excerpt from this week's Earnings Trends report. You can access the full report that contains detailed historical actual and estimates for the current and following periods, please click here>>>

Target stock tumbles again as customer backlash over its DEI rollback takes a bite out of sales
Target stock tumbles again as customer backlash over its DEI rollback takes a bite out of sales
May 21 2025 03:57 PM

Sales at retail giant Target took a dive during the first three months of 2025 and executives have indicated that boycotts over its rollback on diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) practices are at least partially to blame.

Target
Target's earnings are a wake-up call that the retailer needs change
May 21 2025 02:22 PM

Target shares sank after the retailer missed first quarter earnings and revenue estimates while cutting its sales outlook amid tariff concerns. UBS US hard-line & broadline and food retail analyst Michael Lasser joins Market Domination to break down what Target leadership should be learning from this period how the store is trying to catch up in a fast-changing retail landscape.

Target
Target's weak results were the quarter's ‘least-well-kept secret,' but immediate improvement seems elusive, analysts say
May 21 2025 12:45 PM

The past few years of cost-of-living increases, which have forced many shoppers to focus on the basics, have shifted that narrative for Target.

Target is facing internal problems, not external, says Stacey Widlitz
Target is facing internal problems, not external, says Stacey Widlitz
May 21 2025 12:29 PM

Stacey Widlitz, president of SW Retail Advisors, joins CNBC's 'Power Lunch' to discuss outlooks on Target, why the company is losing marketshare, whether its leadership can turn the company around, and more.

Target reveals drop in first quarter revenue, expects to slip for all of 2025
Target reveals drop in first quarter revenue, expects to slip for all of 2025
May 21 2025 10:31 AM

Sales at Target fell more than expected in the first quarter and the retailer warned they will slip for all of 2025 year as its customers, worried over the impact of tariffs and the economy, pull back on spending.Target also said that customer boycotts have also done some damage. The company scaled back many diversity, equity and inclusion initiatives in January after they came under attack by conservative activists and the White House.

Target Reports Sales Drop as Consumers Focus on ‘Needs-Based Categories
Target Reports Sales Drop as Consumers Focus on ‘Needs-Based Categories'
May 21 2025 09:45 AM

Target reported a 3.8% decrease in comparable sales for the first quarter and said it expects to see a low single-digit decline in sales for fiscal 2025.

Nvidia urges US to ease AI curbs, Target stock sinks following earnings, Trump
Nvidia urges US to ease AI curbs, Target stock sinks following earnings, Trump's tax bill
May 21 2025 08:48 AM

Morning Brief anchors Madison Mills and Brad Smith break down the day's financial news for May 21, 2025. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang called US chip curbs 'a failure.

Q1 Retailers Report Earnings: TGT Misses, LOW & TJX Beat
Q1 Retailers Report Earnings: TGT Misses, LOW & TJX Beat
May 21 2025 08:30 AM

We're beginning to see something resembling the top of the parabolic curve, with most major indexes flat over the past five trading days.

Target Misses on Q1 Earnings Estimates, Slashes FY25 Outlook
Target Misses on Q1 Earnings Estimates, Slashes FY25 Outlook
May 21 2025 08:30 AM

Target lowers fiscal 2025 forecast following dismal Q1 results. However, strong digital momentum and Circle 360 growth offer reasons for hope.

Target (TGT) Q1 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
Target (TGT) Q1 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
May 21 2025 08:05 AM

Target (NYSE:TGT ) Q1 2025 Earnings Conference Call May 21, 2025 8:00 AM ET Company Participants Conference Call Participants Operator Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Target Corporation First Quarter Earnings Release Conference Call.

Earnings Preview: Macy
Earnings Preview: Macy's (M) Q1 Earnings Expected to Decline
May 21 2025 08:01 AM

Macy's (M) doesn't possess the right combination of the two key ingredients for a likely earnings beat in its upcoming report. Get prepared with the key expectations.

Target misses Wall Street expectations, cuts full-year sales outlook
Target misses Wall Street expectations, cuts full-year sales outlook
May 21 2025 07:37 AM

CNBC's Courtney Reagan joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss Target's most recent earnings.

Compared to Estimates, Target (TGT) Q1 Earnings: A Look at Key Metrics
Compared to Estimates, Target (TGT) Q1 Earnings: A Look at Key Metrics
May 21 2025 07:31 AM

The headline numbers for Target (TGT) give insight into how the company performed in the quarter ended April 2025, but it may be worthwhile to compare some of its key metrics to Wall Street estimates and the year-ago actuals.

Target sales fall sharply in first quarter as customers worry about tariffs
Target sales fall sharply in first quarter as customers worry about tariffs
May 21 2025 07:10 AM

Retailer warns sales will slip for all of 2025 as customers pull back spending amid fears over tariffs and economy

Target Warns Of Lower Sales In 2025—Blaming Tariffs And DEI Rollback Backlash
Target Warns Of Lower Sales In 2025—Blaming Tariffs And DEI Rollback Backlash
May 21 2025 07:10 AM

Cornell reportedly said Target would only raise its prices amid tariffs as a “very last resort.” Even as other retailers, like Walmart, have warned of hiked prices, Target still has “many levers to use in mitigating the impact of tariffs,” Cornell said.

Target Says Sales Will Decline Amid Tariffs—Joining These Companies Warning Of Tariff Impacts
Target Says Sales Will Decline Amid Tariffs—Joining These Companies Warning Of Tariff Impacts
May 21 2025 07:05 AM

Home Depot, whose first-quarter earnings fell just below analyst expectations despite beating revenue projections, according to FactSet, reported the company will hold onto its forecast for full-year sales. Chief Financial Officer Richard McPhail told CNBC that, “because of our scale” and Home Depot's “great partnerships” with suppliers, the company plans to “generally maintain our current pricing levels across our portfolio.

Dow Tumbles Over 300 Points; Target Posts Downbeat Earnings
Dow Tumbles Over 300 Points; Target Posts Downbeat Earnings
May 21 2025 06:57 AM

U.S. stocks traded lower this morning, with the Dow Jones index falling more than 300 points on Wednesday.

Target earnings miss sends stock lower: Analyst outlines the retailer
Target earnings miss sends stock lower: Analyst outlines the retailer's 'tricky position'
May 21 2025 06:53 AM

Target (TGT) shares tumble after reporting first quarter results that missed earnings estimates and cut its full-year outlook. Roth Capital Partners senior research analyst Bill Kirk joins Morning Brief with Madison Mills and Brad Smith to take a closer look at the retailer's latest earnings print.

Target cuts full year guidance as first quarter earnings fall short
Target cuts full year guidance as first quarter earnings fall short
May 21 2025 06:48 AM

Target Corp (NYSE:TGT) shares moved lower in early trade on Wednesday as it slashed its full-year guidance following a weak first quarter. The retailer now expects its full-year sales to be down a low single digit percentage versus its prior guidance of 1% growth over last year.

Big Box Retail Earnings: TGT Widens Guidance & TJX Same-Store Sales Slip
Big Box Retail Earnings: TGT Widens Guidance & TJX Same-Store Sales Slip
May 21 2025 06:45 AM

Big box retailers faced pressure this morning, brought mostly through Target's (TGT) earnings miss and widened guidance. TJX Companies (TJX) beat its earnings but its stock didn't see much movement, possibly due to a slight dip in same-store sales.

Target And Lowe
Target And Lowe's Earnings Are Out: What Shoppers Need To Know In A Changing Retail World
May 21 2025 05:55 AM

The first few months of 2025 were bumpy for many big retailers and the US stock market. The world had to adjust to tariffs and GDP contracted in Q1.

Stocks Snap Winning Streak, PANW and TGT Slide After Earnings
Stocks Snap Winning Streak, PANW and TGT Slide After Earnings
May 21 2025 05:45 AM

Equity futures are pointing to a second straight negative day after the SPX snapped its six-day winnings streak on Tuesday. Kevin Green sees markets entering a "wait-and-see" mode as investors may be taking profits from the recent rally and waiting commentary from Fed speakers and additional tariff news.

Target (TGT) Misses Q1 Earnings and Revenue Estimates
Target (TGT) Misses Q1 Earnings and Revenue Estimates
May 21 2025 05:40 AM

Target (TGT) came out with quarterly earnings of $1.30 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.62 per share. This compares to earnings of $2.03 per share a year ago.

Retail Earnings Continue; Target Disappoints While Lowe
Retail Earnings Continue; Target Disappoints While Lowe's Reaffirms Guidance
May 21 2025 05:40 AM

Key Takeaways

Target
Target's upside is significant if it can get it right, says UBS' Michael Lasser
May 21 2025 05:32 AM

Michael Lasser, UBS equity research analyst, joins 'Squawk Box' to break down Target's quarterly earnings results, comparison to Walmart, and more.

Storch: Target is a very badly broken story
Storch: Target is a very badly broken story
May 21 2025 05:02 AM

Gerald Storch, ex-Target Vice Chairman and CEO of Storch Advisors, says Target's strategy is broken, lagging far behind Walmart, and warns that pricing talk could worsen investor and consumer trust.

Target sales tumble — and aren
Target sales tumble — and aren't expected to improve anytime soon
May 21 2025 04:48 AM

Target reported sliding sales in its first quarter to May 3. CEO Brian Cornell said sales "fell short of our expectations" in a "highly challenging environment.

Target Cuts Full-Year Sales Forecast After Mixed Q1 Results
Target Cuts Full-Year Sales Forecast After Mixed Q1 Results
May 21 2025 04:21 AM

Target (TGT) lowered its full-year sales projection Wednesday after the retail giant reported mixed first-quarter results.

Target Slashes Sales Outlook as Tariff Pressures and DEI Backlash Weigh on Performance
Target Slashes Sales Outlook as Tariff Pressures and DEI Backlash Weigh on Performance
May 21 2025 04:07 AM

Target cuts its full-year sales forecast as tariff pressures, weak spending, and backlash over DEI rollbacks weigh on performance and consumer sentiment.

Target cuts sales outlook - as retailer blames tariff uncertainty and backlash to DEI rollback
Target cuts sales outlook - as retailer blames tariff uncertainty and backlash to DEI rollback
May 21 2025 04:06 AM

CNBC's Courtney Reagan reports on the company's quarterly earnings results.

Target sales slump in
Target sales slump in 'highly challenging environment' that included tariff war
May 21 2025 04:01 AM

Target's top boss warned that the company has been trying to navigate thought a highly challenging environment, which included President Trump's trade war with other nations.

Target
Target's stock drops as earnings fall below forecasts, and the outlook was lowered
May 21 2025 03:43 AM

Shares of Target Corp. TGT slumped 2% in premarket trading Wednesday, after the discount retailer missed fiscal first-quarter earnings expectations and cut its full-year profit outlook, as the retail environment continued to be highly challenging.

Target cuts annual forecasts as tariff pressure mounts, demand slows further
Target cuts annual forecasts as tariff pressure mounts, demand slows further
May 21 2025 03:35 AM

Target slashed its annual sales forecast on Wednesday after posting a sharp decline in quarterly same-store sales, attributing the declines to weakened consumer confidence and a pullback in discretionary spending due to U.S. President Donald Trump's aggressive approach to trade.

Target cuts sales outlook as retailer blames tariff uncertainty and backlash to DEI rollback
Target cuts sales outlook as retailer blames tariff uncertainty and backlash to DEI rollback
May 21 2025 03:32 AM

Target on Wednesday cut its full-year sales outlook, as executives said weaker discretionary spending, consumer uncertainty about tariffs, and backlash to the company's rollback of key diversity, equity and inclusion efforts hurt its business.

Target Corporation Reports First Quarter Earnings
Target Corporation Reports First Quarter Earnings
May 21 2025 03:30 AM

MINNEAPOLIS , May 21, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- First quarter Net Sales were $23.8 billion, compared with $24.5 billion in 2024. Digital comparable sales grew 4.7 percent reflecting more than 35 percent growth in same-day delivery powered by Target Circle 360TM and continued growth in Drive Up.

Target Slashes Earnings Guidance As 1Q Results Disappoint
Target Slashes Earnings Guidance As 1Q Results Disappoint
May 21 2025 03:30 AM

Target posted fiscal first-quarter results that fell well short of Wall Street's expectations and slashed its full-year earnings guidance, as the retailer grapples with waning consumer spending and the fallout from a boycott related to its move to end some diversity programs.

S&P 500 posts a loss, Palo Alto Networks earnings, Target to report
S&P 500 posts a loss, Palo Alto Networks earnings, Target to report
May 20 2025 03:31 PM

On today's Market Domination Overtime, hosts Josh Lipton and Julie Hyman cover the market pullback as the S&P 500 snaps its win streak Palo Alto Networks reported its third quarter results. Morningstar equity analyst Malik Ahmed Khan shares his bullish take on the report.

What to expect from Target earnings Wednesday
What to expect from Target earnings Wednesday
May 20 2025 03:19 PM

'Fast Money' traders talk Target earnings.

Target earnings seen topping estimates, but soft sales and tariffs pose risks
Target earnings seen topping estimates, but soft sales and tariffs pose risks
May 20 2025 12:46 PM

Target Corp (NYSE:TGT) is expected to report fiscal first-quarter earnings on Wednesday, with Bank of America forecasting results ahead of Wall Street estimates despite ongoing pressure from soft discretionary spending and rising costs. Analysts project adjusted earnings per share of $1.78 and a 1% decline in comparable sales for the quarter.

Retail Earnings Trade: Example Options Strategies in TGT & TJX
Retail Earnings Trade: Example Options Strategies in TGT & TJX
May 20 2025 09:15 AM

TJX Companies (TJX) shares hit all-time highs today ahead of Wednesday's earnings report. Kevin Hincks illustrates 2 example options trades in retail stocks, including TJX and Target (TGT).

Target Earnings Due As Trump Tariffs, Boycotts Hang Over Discount Giant
Target Earnings Due As Trump Tariffs, Boycotts Hang Over Discount Giant
May 20 2025 09:11 AM

Target stock has tumbled this year amid fresh boycotts, tariff-related pressures. First-quarter earnings are due Wednesday.

TGT "Bellwether Moment:" Can Earnings Hit Bullseye Despite Tariff Pressure?
TGT "Bellwether Moment:" Can Earnings Hit Bullseye Despite Tariff Pressure?
May 20 2025 08:30 AM

Target (TGT) will report earnings tomorrow before the opening bell. The company sold off after its previous two earnings, but J.D.

After Earnings Beats, These 3 Stocks Are on Analysts
After Earnings Beats, These 3 Stocks Are on Analysts' Radars
May 20 2025 05:16 AM

When companies deliver earnings that exceed expectations, Wall Street often takes swift action—and that's exactly what happened with three standout stocks in recent weeks. Their results didn't just beat on revenue and profits; they also delivered guidance and underlying performance metrics that reinforced investor confidence.

Target Corporation to Webcast 1st Quarter Earnings Conference Call on Wednesday, May 21, 2025
Target Corporation to Webcast 1st Quarter Earnings Conference Call on Wednesday, May 21, 2025
May 20 2025 05:00 AM

MINNEAPOLIS , May 20, 2025 /PRNewswire/ --  WHAT: Target Corporation's (NYSE:TGT) webcast of its first quarter earnings conference call. WHEN: Wednesday, May 21, 2025 - 7:00 a.m.

Where Does The Consumer Stand: Retail Earnings On Tap This Week
Where Does The Consumer Stand: Retail Earnings On Tap This Week
May 19 2025 10:13 AM

This week, investor attention shifts to the heart of the U.S. economy: the consumer. Retail earnings are front and center, offering a fresh read on how spending habits are holding up amid persistent conversations around inflation and tariffs.

Cisco Earnings Summary: 5% Free Cash Flow Yield Is A Big Plus
Cisco Earnings Summary: 5% Free Cash Flow Yield Is A Big Plus
May 19 2025 08:35 AM

Cisco managed to generate a 4% upside in EPS, with a $0.96 print (versus the $0.92 estimate) on a 1% revenue upside surprise. The Splunk acquisition is likely the bigger deal for Cisco, as the acquisition greatly enlarges the security division at Cisco, and is expected to be an area of growth for the network giant. This blog's internal model values Cisco closer to $70–$75, so the discount to perceived fair value isn't that yawning, while Morningstar's fair value is mid-$50s.

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