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Ride-the-Wave Strategy – Best for Stock Traders

Ride-the-Wave targets multi-day price momentum following a company’s earnings announcement (EA). With this strategy:

  1. Buy a stock one day post-EA if a stock reacts positively post-earnings:
    1. Near the close of trading the EA-day for a pre-market-EA
    2. Near the close of the following day for a post-market-EA
  2. Sell-to-close after 7-10 days, or possibly earlier if a desired price target is reached

Similarly,

  1. short a stock one day post-EA if a stock reacts negatively post-earnings:
    1. near the close of trading the EA-day for a premarket-EA
    2. near the close of the following day for a post-market-EA
  2. then buy-to-close after 7-10 days, or possibly earlier if a desired price target is reached

Important: Ride-the-Wave is predicated on significant price momentum triggered by an EA. The 7-10 day scenario is the maximum trade hold-time. If you see post EA-momentum is halted or reversed by a significant opposite move, re-evaluate your presence in the trade.

This popular StockEarnings screen below will give you a list of stocks that historically exhibit significant price momentum following an EA for the next seven days:

  1. Stocks exhibiting positive post-EA price moves are buy-candidates
  2. Stocks exhibiting negative post-EA price moves are sell/short-candidates

The screen includes those stocks whose Earnings just came out in last two days.

Screen criteria:

  1. Earnings Date Start Date : Current Date + -1 Day
  2. Earnings Date End Date : Current Date + -2 Days
  3. Predicted Move (Next Day) Max : 7%
  4. Predicted Move (On 7th Day) Min : 7%

Strategy Guideline:

  1. Buy the stock if stock has reacted positively. Short the stock if stock has reacted negatively (see above).
  2. Close the position in 7-10 days, or possibly earlier based on price move.

Volatility Crush Strategy - Best for Options Traders

The Volatility Crush strategy is used with stocks that typically experience relatively low-to-moderate price moves (≤4%) following their Earnings Announcements (EA). The basic trade idea is to sell put or call options right before the EA, collecting a credit when options premium is very high due to elevated implied volatility (IV). You then close the position right after the EA by buying the option back much cheaper due to the significant drop in IV that occurs after the mystery of the EA disappears. In assessing this trade, you need to do your homework to ensure you collect sufficient premium to make the trade worthwhile.

This trade is practical due to the low-to-moderate price-move after the EA, which generally won’t significantly affect the options price, unlike an “action” stock, which experience great price moves post-EA. With these symbols, if you’re on the right side of the price move, that’s a great thing. But if you’re on the wrong side of the move, not so great. Consequently, by minimizing the effect of the post-EA price move, you have a much better chance to profit from the reduction in IV without it being ruined by a violent price move.

For this trade, open the position either (1) the night before the EA when the company announces earnings or (2) during the EA day when it announces post-market, generally capturing IV at or close to its peak.

For this trade, open the position either (1) the night before the EA when the company announces earnings or (2) during the EA day when it announces post-market, generally capturing IV at or close to its peak.

This popular stockearnings screen will give you a list of stocks which do not react more than 4% fpost-EA. It includes only those stocks whose earnings are releasing next day.

Screen criteria:

  1. Earnings Date Start Date : Current Date + 1
  2. Earnings Date End Date : Current Date + 1
  3. Predicted Move (Next Day) Max : 4%
  4. Options Type: Weekly

Strategy Guideline:

  1. Options Strategy: Sell Call and Put
  2. Options Strike Price: Current Stock Price – (% Predicated Move x 2)
  3. Expiration Date: It should generally be the closest expiry immediately after the EA.
  4. Buy Insurance: Buying back Call and Put at Strike price which 10% lower than Sell Strike Price is optional but recommended.

Watch Video for More Detail

Volatility Rush Strategy - Best for Options Traders

The Volatility Rush takes advantage of increasing options premiums into earnings announcements (EA) caused by an anticipated rise in Implied Volatility (IV). With this strategy, Buy a Call and Put at-the-money (a long straddle) 2-3 weeks before the EA when IV is lower. Sell the position either (1) the night before the EA when the company announces earnings pre-market, or (2) during the EA day when it announces post-market, generally capturing IV at or close to its peak.

This popular screen will give you a list of stocks whose Options premiums tend to rise into Earnings. It includes only those stocks whose Earnings are at least two weeks away from today.

Screen criteria:

  1. Earnings Date Start Date : Current Date + 15 Days
  2. Earnings Date End Date : Current Date + 30 Days
  3. Predicted Move (Next Day) Min : 5%
  4. Options Type: Weekly or Monthly if that lines up with the two to three-week lead-time for entering the trade

Strategy Guideline:

  1. Buy a Straddle at or close to the money two to three weeks pre-EA.
  2. Sell the position either the night before the EA when the company announces earnings pre-market, or during the EA day when it announces post-market.
  3. Expiration date should generally be the closest expiry immediately after the EA.
  4. Straddle price should not be more 60% of predicted move.

Predicted Move (Volatility)

Similar to Implied Volatility in Options. Expected volatility % based on our Proprietary Volatility Predication Model. We are expecting that stock price will likely to reach % in either direction by the end of next trading session after Earnings are released and not necessarily the closing volatility %.

Why is it important?

    This indicator helps

  1. Knowing expected volatility in stocks after Earnings helps to decide trading stocks before Earnings Announcement.
  2. Taking Advantage of volatility collapse following Earnings Results by using Advance Options strategies such as Spread and Straddles.

Since Last Earnings

Change in share price since last Earnings release.

Why is it Important?

When share has gained more than 10% since it's last Earning release, it tends to over react to minor bad news and give up some gains if not all. So, it contains more downside volatility than upside When share has dropped more than 10% since it's last Earning release, it tends to over react to minor good news and recover some drops if not all. So, it contains more upside volatility than downside.

EPS Surprise (%)

Occurs when a company's reported quarterly or annual profits are above or below analysts' expectations. Here is the formula to derive % EPS Surprice:

Actual EPS - Estimated EPS
------------------------------------- x 100
Estimated EPS

Why is it Important?

Earnings surprises can have a huge impact on a company's stock price. Several studies suggest that positive earnings surprises not only lead to an immediate hike in a stock's price, but also to a gradual increase over time. Hence, it's not surprising that some companies are known for routinely beating earning projections. A negative earnings surprise will usually result in a decline in share price.

Next Day Price Change (%)

Next Regular trading session Closing price following Earnings result.

For After Market Close Earnings, It is a next trading day closing price. For Before Market Open Earnings, It is the same trading day closing price.

Why is it Important?

Next Day price change is a reaction of Earnings result.

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Farmer Mac Closes $302.7 Million Securitization of Agricultural Mortgage-Backed Securities (AMBS)
Farmer Mac Closes $302.7 Million Securitization of Agricultural Mortgage-Backed Securities (AMBS)
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WASHINGTON, Oct. 14, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- The Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (Farmer Mac; NYSE: AGM and AGM.A), a stockholder-owned, federally chartered corporation that provides a secondary market for a variety of loans made to borrowers in rural America with the intent of increasing the availability and affordability of credit for the benefit of rural America, announced today that it has completed a $302.7 million securitization of agricultural mortgage loans.  "We are proud to announce the closing of the FARM Series 2021-1 securitization, a newly-structured and syndicated agricultural mortgage-backed securitization (AMBS)," said President & Chief Executive Officer, Brad Nordholm.

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Q2 operating EPS was better than I expected.

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WASHINGTON, July 26, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- The Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (Farmer Mac; NYSE: AGM and AGM.A), the nation's secondary market provider that increases the availability and affordability of credit for the benefit of rural America, today announced that it will release its financial results for the fiscal quarter ended June 30, 2021, on Thursday, August 5, 2021, after the closing of equity markets.  A conference call to discuss the results will be held that day at 4:30 p.m.

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Farmer Mac recently issued a new series of preferred shares. I expect the coverage ratio of the preferred dividends to be around 500%, including the new issue.

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May 20 2021 02:25 PM

WASHINGTON, May 20, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- The Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (Farmer Mac; NYSE: AGM and AGM.A) today announced that it has agreed to issue $125 million of Tier 1 capital through the public offering of 4.875% non-cumulative perpetual Series G preferred stock, par value $25.00 per share. The preferred stock offering is expected to close on May 27, 2021, subject to customary closing conditions.

Farmer Mac Announces Election of Roy H. Tiarks to Board of Directors
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WASHINGTON, May 17, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- The Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (Farmer Mac; NYSE: AGM and AGM.A), the nation's secondary market provider that increases the availability and affordability of credit for the benefit of rural America, announced today that Roy H. Tiarks of Council Bluffs, Iowa has been elected as the newest member of the company's board of directors.

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WASHINGTON, May 6, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- The Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (Farmer Mac; NYSE: AGM and AGM.A), the nation's secondary market provider that increases the availability and affordability of credit for the benefit of rural America, today announced its results for the fiscal quarter ended March 31, 2021. First Quarter 2021 Highlights Provided $1.5 billion in liquidity and lending capacity; Net income attributable to common stockholders was $28.0 million, or $2.58 per diluted common share; Core earnings, a non-GAAP measure, grew 29% from the prior-year period to $25.9 million, or $2.39 per diluted common share; Net interest income grew $12.0 million year-over-year to $53.3 million; Net effective spread, a non-GAAP measure, increased 22% from the prior-year period to $53.9 million; 90-day delinquencies were 0.33% of total outstanding business volume as of March 31, 2021; and Continued strong liquidity position, as evidenced by quarter-end cash position of $1.0 billion.

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WASHINGTON, April 29, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- The Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (Farmer Mac; NYSE: AGM and AGM.A), the nation's secondary market provider that increases the availability and affordability of credit for the benefit of rural America, today announced that it will release its financial results for the fiscal quarter ended March 31, 2021, on Thursday, May 6, 2021, after the closing of equity markets.  A conference call to discuss the results will be held that day at 4:30 p.m.

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Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (AGM) CEO Brad Nordholm on Q2 2019 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
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The following stocks have low price-earnings ratios and have been bought by gurus.

Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (AGM) CEO Bradford Nordholm on Q1 2019 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
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