ajax loader

Loading...


Ride-the-Wave Strategy – Best for Stock Traders

Ride-the-Wave targets multi-day price momentum following a company’s earnings announcement (EA). With this strategy:

  1. Buy a stock one day post-EA if a stock reacts positively post-earnings:
    1. Near the close of trading the EA-day for a pre-market-EA
    2. Near the close of the following day for a post-market-EA
  2. Sell-to-close after 7-10 days, or possibly earlier if a desired price target is reached

Similarly,

  1. short a stock one day post-EA if a stock reacts negatively post-earnings:
    1. near the close of trading the EA-day for a premarket-EA
    2. near the close of the following day for a post-market-EA
  2. then buy-to-close after 7-10 days, or possibly earlier if a desired price target is reached

Important: Ride-the-Wave is predicated on significant price momentum triggered by an EA. The 7-10 day scenario is the maximum trade hold-time. If you see post EA-momentum is halted or reversed by a significant opposite move, re-evaluate your presence in the trade.

This popular StockEarnings screen below will give you a list of stocks that historically exhibit significant price momentum following an EA for the next seven days:

  1. Stocks exhibiting positive post-EA price moves are buy-candidates
  2. Stocks exhibiting negative post-EA price moves are sell/short-candidates

The screen includes those stocks whose Earnings just came out in last two days.

Screen criteria:

  1. Earnings Date Start Date : Current Date + -1 Day
  2. Earnings Date End Date : Current Date + -2 Days
  3. Predicted Move (Next Day) Max : 7%
  4. Predicted Move (On 7th Day) Min : 7%

Strategy Guideline:

  1. Buy the stock if stock has reacted positively. Short the stock if stock has reacted negatively (see above).
  2. Close the position in 7-10 days, or possibly earlier based on price move.

Volatility Crush Strategy - Best for Options Traders

The Volatility Crush strategy is used with stocks that typically experience relatively low-to-moderate price moves (≤4%) following their Earnings Announcements (EA). The basic trade idea is to sell put or call options right before the EA, collecting a credit when options premium is very high due to elevated implied volatility (IV). You then close the position right after the EA by buying the option back much cheaper due to the significant drop in IV that occurs after the mystery of the EA disappears. In assessing this trade, you need to do your homework to ensure you collect sufficient premium to make the trade worthwhile.

This trade is practical due to the low-to-moderate price-move after the EA, which generally won’t significantly affect the options price, unlike an “action” stock, which experience great price moves post-EA. With these symbols, if you’re on the right side of the price move, that’s a great thing. But if you’re on the wrong side of the move, not so great. Consequently, by minimizing the effect of the post-EA price move, you have a much better chance to profit from the reduction in IV without it being ruined by a violent price move.

For this trade, open the position either (1) the night before the EA when the company announces earnings or (2) during the EA day when it announces post-market, generally capturing IV at or close to its peak.

For this trade, open the position either (1) the night before the EA when the company announces earnings or (2) during the EA day when it announces post-market, generally capturing IV at or close to its peak.

This popular stockearnings screen will give you a list of stocks which do not react more than 4% fpost-EA. It includes only those stocks whose earnings are releasing next day.

Screen criteria:

  1. Earnings Date Start Date : Current Date + 1
  2. Earnings Date End Date : Current Date + 1
  3. Predicted Move (Next Day) Max : 4%
  4. Options Type: Weekly

Strategy Guideline:

  1. Options Strategy: Sell Call and Put
  2. Options Strike Price: Current Stock Price – (% Predicated Move x 2)
  3. Expiration Date: It should generally be the closest expiry immediately after the EA.
  4. Buy Insurance: Buying back Call and Put at Strike price which 10% lower than Sell Strike Price is optional but recommended.

Watch Video for More Detail

Volatility Rush Strategy - Best for Options Traders

The Volatility Rush takes advantage of increasing options premiums into earnings announcements (EA) caused by an anticipated rise in Implied Volatility (IV). With this strategy, Buy a Call and Put at-the-money (a long straddle) 2-3 weeks before the EA when IV is lower. Sell the position either (1) the night before the EA when the company announces earnings pre-market, or (2) during the EA day when it announces post-market, generally capturing IV at or close to its peak.

This popular screen will give you a list of stocks whose Options premiums tend to rise into Earnings. It includes only those stocks whose Earnings are at least two weeks away from today.

Screen criteria:

  1. Earnings Date Start Date : Current Date + 15 Days
  2. Earnings Date End Date : Current Date + 30 Days
  3. Predicted Move (Next Day) Min : 5%
  4. Options Type: Weekly or Monthly if that lines up with the two to three-week lead-time for entering the trade

Strategy Guideline:

  1. Buy a Straddle at or close to the money two to three weeks pre-EA.
  2. Sell the position either the night before the EA when the company announces earnings pre-market, or during the EA day when it announces post-market.
  3. Expiration date should generally be the closest expiry immediately after the EA.
  4. Straddle price should not be more 60% of predicted move.

Predicted Move (Volatility)

Similar to Implied Volatility in Options. Expected volatility % based on our Proprietary Volatility Predication Model. We are expecting that stock price will likely to reach % in either direction by the end of next trading session after Earnings are released and not necessarily the closing volatility %.

Why is it important?

    This indicator helps

  1. Knowing expected volatility in stocks after Earnings helps to decide trading stocks before Earnings Announcement.
  2. Taking Advantage of volatility collapse following Earnings Results by using Advance Options strategies such as Spread and Straddles.

Since Last Earnings

Change in share price since last Earnings release.

Why is it Important?

When share has gained more than 10% since it's last Earning release, it tends to over react to minor bad news and give up some gains if not all. So, it contains more downside volatility than upside When share has dropped more than 10% since it's last Earning release, it tends to over react to minor good news and recover some drops if not all. So, it contains more upside volatility than downside.

EPS Surprise (%)

Occurs when a company's reported quarterly or annual profits are above or below analysts' expectations. Here is the formula to derive % EPS Surprice:

Actual EPS - Estimated EPS
------------------------------------- x 100
Estimated EPS

Why is it Important?

Earnings surprises can have a huge impact on a company's stock price. Several studies suggest that positive earnings surprises not only lead to an immediate hike in a stock's price, but also to a gradual increase over time. Hence, it's not surprising that some companies are known for routinely beating earning projections. A negative earnings surprise will usually result in a decline in share price.

Next Day Price Change (%)

Next Regular trading session Closing price following Earnings result.

For After Market Close Earnings, It is a next trading day closing price. For Before Market Open Earnings, It is the same trading day closing price.

Why is it Important?

Next Day price change is a reaction of Earnings result.

Oracle Corporation (NYSE: ORCL) Expects to Generate Revenue Of $10.21 Billion In Fiscal Q2 2022

Posted on Dec 08, 2021 by Neha Gupta

Oracle Corporation (NYSE: ORCL) Expects to Generate Revenue Of $10.21 Billion In Fiscal Q2 2022

Oracle Corporation (NYSE: ORCL) has confirmed that it will release its fiscal Q2 2022 earnings on Thursday, December 9, 2021, after markets close.

What to look for

Oracle has improved its profitability over the last three years, with earnings per share growing rapidly. For instance, last year, EPS grew to $5.1 from $3.26 per share, representing 56% growth. Investors will be keen to see whether the company continues its exceptional streak of growing EPS and revenue when the cloud giant releases its fiscal Q2 2022 results.

Earnings: Stockearning’s Estimated EPS for fiscal Q2 2022 is expected to grow by 4.7% YoY to $1.11 per share relative to EPS of $0.87 per share on Q1 2022. Historical EPS Performance shows that the company has in the past 12 quarters topped estimates 11 times (91%) and missed EPS estimates once (8%).

Revenue: For fiscal Q2 2022, the company expects revenue of $10.21 billion, representing a 4.2% YoY increase. In the first quarter, the company had total revenue of $9.7 billion, up 4% YoY, with cloud serves and license support revenues growing 6% while cloud license and on-premise license revenues dropping 8%.

Stock movement: Oracle stock has lost 0.7% since the last earnings release. Oracle shares have been DOWN 27 times out of the past 47 quarters following the earnings release. So, the historical price reaction suggests a 57% probability of the share price going DOWN once Oracle releases fiscal Q2 2022 earnings. According to the Stockearning algorithm, the predicted first-day move is 4%, while the predicted move on the seventh day is 5%.

What analysts are saying

Credit Suisse analyst Phil Winslow commenced coverage of Oracle with a "Buy" rating with a price target of $110. Winslow sees the company well-positioned to emerge as the third or fourth-ranked vendor in the PaaS/IaaS market and as the second-ranked SaaS market vendor. In addition, the analyst sees the stock having several advantages within a "down-the-stack" strategy beginning with its massive, entrenched on-premise installed base.

Also, Deutsche Bank analyst Brad Zelnick commenced coverage on Oracle with a “Hold” rating and a target price of $110. While Zelnick believes that the market has "finally appreciating the durability of Oracle's core database franchise, its pole position in cloud financial applications, and optionality in cloud infrastructure,” he considers current reward/risk as properly balanced.

Recently BMO Capital analyst Keith Bachman upgraded the company’s price target from $88 to $100 but maintained a “Hold” rating in the stock following the company’s Q1 2022 earnings report and guidance. The analyst remains bullish in the company’s ERP and HCM but is not convinced regarding the stock’s long-term growth potential in databases but feels the high valuations in software’s increase appeal on ORCL.

Related News

Stitch Fix Inc. (NYSE: SFIX) Earnings Expectations, Revenue of $560M to $575M in Q1 2022

GameStop Corporation (NYSE: GME) Earnings Expectation, Revenue of $1.189 Billion

Neha has a passion for understanding the real value of stocks in publicly traded markets. She has a BA in Finance and a Masters in microeconomics. Anne has worked as a consultant advising buy-side firms and long-only equity fund managers. At stocksearning.com, she anchors our fundamental research writing desk.

Join over 100,000 investors who get daily notable Earnings alerts with predicted move.