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Ride-the-Wave Strategy – Best for Stock Traders

Ride-the-Wave targets multi-day price momentum following a company’s earnings announcement (EA). With this strategy:

  1. Buy a stock one day post-EA if a stock reacts positively post-earnings:
    1. Near the close of trading the EA-day for a pre-market-EA
    2. Near the close of the following day for a post-market-EA
  2. Sell-to-close after 7-10 days, or possibly earlier if a desired price target is reached

Similarly,

  1. short a stock one day post-EA if a stock reacts negatively post-earnings:
    1. near the close of trading the EA-day for a premarket-EA
    2. near the close of the following day for a post-market-EA
  2. then buy-to-close after 7-10 days, or possibly earlier if a desired price target is reached

Important: Ride-the-Wave is predicated on significant price momentum triggered by an EA. The 7-10 day scenario is the maximum trade hold-time. If you see post EA-momentum is halted or reversed by a significant opposite move, re-evaluate your presence in the trade.

This popular StockEarnings screen below will give you a list of stocks that historically exhibit significant price momentum following an EA for the next seven days:

  1. Stocks exhibiting positive post-EA price moves are buy-candidates
  2. Stocks exhibiting negative post-EA price moves are sell/short-candidates

The screen includes those stocks whose Earnings just came out in last two days.

Screen criteria:

  1. Earnings Date Start Date : Current Date + -1 Day
  2. Earnings Date End Date : Current Date + -2 Days
  3. Predicted Move (Next Day) Max : 7%
  4. Predicted Move (On 7th Day) Min : 7%

Strategy Guideline:

  1. Buy the stock if stock has reacted positively. Short the stock if stock has reacted negatively (see above).
  2. Close the position in 7-10 days, or possibly earlier based on price move.

Volatility Crush Strategy - Best for Options Traders

The Volatility Crush strategy is used with stocks that typically experience relatively low-to-moderate price moves (≤4%) following their Earnings Announcements (EA). The basic trade idea is to sell put or call options right before the EA, collecting a credit when options premium is very high due to elevated implied volatility (IV). You then close the position right after the EA by buying the option back much cheaper due to the significant drop in IV that occurs after the mystery of the EA disappears. In assessing this trade, you need to do your homework to ensure you collect sufficient premium to make the trade worthwhile.

This trade is practical due to the low-to-moderate price-move after the EA, which generally won’t significantly affect the options price, unlike an “action” stock, which experience great price moves post-EA. With these symbols, if you’re on the right side of the price move, that’s a great thing. But if you’re on the wrong side of the move, not so great. Consequently, by minimizing the effect of the post-EA price move, you have a much better chance to profit from the reduction in IV without it being ruined by a violent price move.

For this trade, open the position either (1) the night before the EA when the company announces earnings or (2) during the EA day when it announces post-market, generally capturing IV at or close to its peak.

For this trade, open the position either (1) the night before the EA when the company announces earnings or (2) during the EA day when it announces post-market, generally capturing IV at or close to its peak.

This popular stockearnings screen will give you a list of stocks which do not react more than 4% fpost-EA. It includes only those stocks whose earnings are releasing next day.

Screen criteria:

  1. Earnings Date Start Date : Current Date + 1
  2. Earnings Date End Date : Current Date + 1
  3. Predicted Move (Next Day) Max : 4%
  4. Options Type: Weekly

Strategy Guideline:

  1. Options Strategy: Sell Call and Put
  2. Options Strike Price: Current Stock Price – (% Predicated Move x 2)
  3. Expiration Date: It should generally be the closest expiry immediately after the EA.
  4. Buy Insurance: Buying back Call and Put at Strike price which 10% lower than Sell Strike Price is optional but recommended.

Watch Video for More Detail

Volatility Rush Strategy - Best for Options Traders

The Volatility Rush takes advantage of increasing options premiums into earnings announcements (EA) caused by an anticipated rise in Implied Volatility (IV). With this strategy, Buy a Call and Put at-the-money (a long straddle) 2-3 weeks before the EA when IV is lower. Sell the position either (1) the night before the EA when the company announces earnings pre-market, or (2) during the EA day when it announces post-market, generally capturing IV at or close to its peak.

This popular screen will give you a list of stocks whose Options premiums tend to rise into Earnings. It includes only those stocks whose Earnings are at least two weeks away from today.

Screen criteria:

  1. Earnings Date Start Date : Current Date + 15 Days
  2. Earnings Date End Date : Current Date + 30 Days
  3. Predicted Move (Next Day) Min : 5%
  4. Options Type: Weekly or Monthly if that lines up with the two to three-week lead-time for entering the trade

Strategy Guideline:

  1. Buy a Straddle at or close to the money two to three weeks pre-EA.
  2. Sell the position either the night before the EA when the company announces earnings pre-market, or during the EA day when it announces post-market.
  3. Expiration date should generally be the closest expiry immediately after the EA.
  4. Straddle price should not be more 60% of predicted move.

Predicted Move (Volatility)

Similar to Implied Volatility in Options. Expected volatility % based on our Proprietary Volatility Predication Model. We are expecting that stock price will likely to reach % in either direction by the end of next trading session after Earnings are released and not necessarily the closing volatility %.

Why is it important?

    This indicator helps

  1. Knowing expected volatility in stocks after Earnings helps to decide trading stocks before Earnings Announcement.
  2. Taking Advantage of volatility collapse following Earnings Results by using Advance Options strategies such as Spread and Straddles.

Since Last Earnings

Change in share price since last Earnings release.

Why is it Important?

When share has gained more than 10% since it's last Earning release, it tends to over react to minor bad news and give up some gains if not all. So, it contains more downside volatility than upside When share has dropped more than 10% since it's last Earning release, it tends to over react to minor good news and recover some drops if not all. So, it contains more upside volatility than downside.

EPS Surprise (%)

Occurs when a company's reported quarterly or annual profits are above or below analysts' expectations. Here is the formula to derive % EPS Surprice:

Actual EPS - Estimated EPS
------------------------------------- x 100
Estimated EPS

Why is it Important?

Earnings surprises can have a huge impact on a company's stock price. Several studies suggest that positive earnings surprises not only lead to an immediate hike in a stock's price, but also to a gradual increase over time. Hence, it's not surprising that some companies are known for routinely beating earning projections. A negative earnings surprise will usually result in a decline in share price.

Next Day Price Change (%)

Next Regular trading session Closing price following Earnings result.

For After Market Close Earnings, It is a next trading day closing price. For Before Market Open Earnings, It is the same trading day closing price.

Why is it Important?

Next Day price change is a reaction of Earnings result.

Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX) Earnings Expectations, Q4 2021 EPS Of $0.85 On Revenue Of $7.71 Billion

Posted on Jan 19, 2022 by Neha Gupta

Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX) Earnings Expectations, Q4 2021 EPS Of $0.85 On Revenue Of $7.71 Billion

Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX) has confirmed that it will release its earnings for Q4 2021 on Thursday 20, 2021, after market close.

What to look for

The content streaming company expects robust subscriber growth in the quarter under review considering scale-up of content production. As a result, the stock has been under pressure in line with wider growth equity sell-off in recent weeks. To date, the stock has dropped 10.3%, and when the company released its earnings on Thursday, investors will be keen on its subscriber number as a possible catalyst to driver stock movement.

Earnings: Stockearning’s Estimated EPS for Q4 2021 is expected to be around $0.85 per share. In the third quarter, the company had earnings of $3.19, beating estimates by 24.61%. Historical EPS performance shows that the company has, in the past 12 quarters, beat estimates seven times (58%) and missed five times (41%).

Revenue: the company is expected to post revenue of $7.71 billion, representing a YoY growth of 16%.notably, the company anticipates subscribers to have increased 9% in the fourth quarter to 222.06 million from the last quarter. For the nine months ending September, the company had spent $12 billion to add new content to its platform, and in Q4, it is expecting 8.5 million new subscribers.

Stock movement: NFLX shares have gained 17.1% since the company released its third-quarter earnings. Interestingly, NFLX shares have been DOWN 28 times out of the past 48 quarters. So, the historical price reaction suggests a 58% probability of the share price going DOWN once the company reports its fiscal Q4 2021 earnings. According to the Stockearning algorithm, the predicted first-day move is 10%, while the predicted move on the seventh day is 12%.

What analysts are saying

Morgan Stanley analyst Benjamin Swinburne noted that they believe that the share performance depends on increasing its membership scale globally. The analyst said that the proven success in the US and global markets offers a roadmap to success in upcoming markets, and scale will allow the content streaming firm to leverage content investments to boost margins. Also, he pointed out that high global broadband penetration will increase the company's addressable market, drive subscriber growth and allow Netflix to further its global presence.

UBS analyst John Hodulik lowered his price target in NFLX from $720 to $690 but maintained a Buy rating on the stock. According to the analyst, Netflix's net subscription additions likely increased in Q4. Still, they fell short of management's expectations as momentum dropped throughout the quarter due to the late September debut of Squid Games. The industry is still processing the pandemic's outsized growth despite the rich content lineup, but the stock's 25% drop from November peaks may have factored this in, according to Hodulik.

KeyBanc analyst Justin Patterson lowered his price target on the stock from $725 to $620 to reflect his lower estimates and multiple in line with five years median. Patterson maintains a “Buy” rating on the shares.

Credit Suisse analyst Douglas Mitchelson has a Buy rating in NFLX with a price target of $740. The analyst sees four distinct dynamics for Netflix shares heading into Q4, including investor interest at its lowest level in eight years, fading sentiment regarding Q4/Q1 2022 net adds due to some critical reviews, Netflix results that are the defining moment for the stock's thesis and nothing in download data that assists in predicting Q4 net adds.

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Neha has a passion for understanding the real value of stocks in publicly traded markets. She has a BA in Finance and a Masters in microeconomics. Anne has worked as a consultant advising buy-side firms and long-only equity fund managers. At stocksearning.com, she anchors our fundamental research writing desk.

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