Micron Technology Inc. (NASDAQ: MU) has confirmed that it will release its fiscal Q1 2022 earnings results on Monday, December 20, 2021, after markets close.
What to look for
Earnings: Stockearning’s Estimated EPS for fiscal Q1 2022 will be $2.1 per share. In the first quarter of 2021, the company reported $0.78b per-share earnings. Therefore the fiscal Q1 2022 EPS represents a YoY growth of 169.2%. In addition, historical EPS Performance in the last 12 quarters indicates that the company has topped estimates ten times (83%) and missed estimates once (8%). For the full year, the company expects EPS of $8.84 per share, and for next year analysts expect the company's earnings to be $10.47 per share.
Revenue: The company reported revenue of $8.27 billion in Q4 2021, and it is expected to post more revenue in the current quarter. Revenue in the last quarter was up 36.6% YoY.
Stock movement: Since the last earnings release, Micron shares have gained 11.7%. The company's shares have been DOWN 27 times in the last 46 quarters following the earnings release. So, the historical price reaction suggests a 58% probability of the share price going DOWN once Micron reports its fiscal Q1 2022 quarterly earnings. According to the Stockearning algorithm, the predicted first-day move is 6%, while the predicted move on the seventh day is 8%.
What analysts are saying
Cowen analyst Karl Ackerman raised the company’s price target from $80 to $99 and reiterated a "Buy" rating in the stock. Ackerman believes that Micron should outperform wider semis in 2022 based on exceptional reduction in client DRAM inventory across PC, serve, and mobile markets, additional rational DRAM wafer capability increase in 2022 relative to C21, and solid leverage to expanding DRAM content in ML/AI servers, 5G android phones, and EV and ADAS vehicles.
Deutsche Bank analyst Sidney Ho told investors in a research note that while DRAM spot prices have been on the decline since July, there is growing optimism that the correction period will be short and the extent will be less severe than past cycles. Ho’s recent check=s with supply chain implies a shortage in supply restricting set builds in smartphones and PCs, but robust demand is offsetting this more so in DRAM servers with enterprise IT spending recovering as hyperscale clients plan to invest considerably for growth. The analyst notes that this is driving a worse-than-anticipated DRAM price decrease despite elevated inventory levels. Equally, Ho’s checkpoints oy the declining NAND process faster than anticipated. Ho contents that the combination is positive fr investor sentiment on the stock, but Micron is likely to adjust its fiscal Q1 financial outlook. The risk/reward for Micron is favorable, and as a result, Ho is keeping a “buy” rating on the stock with a price target of $90.
Also, Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh upgraded the stock from “Hold2 to “Buy” and also raised the price target from $76 to $95. The analyst said that recent checks show that demand is improving across the server, PC, and smartphone markets. For example, Rakesh told investors that server demand will improve in Q1 2022 with Google and Amazon orders returning even though there is less than a ten-week DRAM inventory. In addition, the analyst sees improving demand tendencies and tailwinds for memory.
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