Li Auto Inc. (NYSE: LI) has confirmed that it will release its earnings on Friday, November 19, 2021, before the market open.
What to look for
Li Auto has been having strong electric vehicle deliveries taking on the likes of China EV, Tesla, and established car manufacturers such as General Motors and Ford. In October, the company delivered 7,649 units, a YoY increase of 107% and up from September's deliveries of 7,096. The company's product has been affected by the global chip shortages, but the supply kink appears to be easing, which is good news for Li Auto and other EV carmakers.
Earnings: Stockearning’s estimated EPS for Q3 2021 is expected to be a loss of $0.09 per share, representing a change of 10% from last year. Historical EPS performance in the last 12 months shows that the company has topped earnings twice (50%) and missed once (25%).
Revenue: The company expects revenue of $2.94 billion in the third quarter representing a YoY change of 102.67%. In the second quarter, the company reported revenue of $780.4 million, representing a YoY increase driven by increased deliveries. In addition, the company released a refreshed 2021 Li One in the second quarter selling 17,575 units of hybrid electric Li One SUVs in Q2 2022.
Stock movement: LI Auto stock has gained 9.7% since the last earnings release. Li Auto stock has been DOWN three times out of four last quarter after the earnings release. So, the historical price reaction suggests a 75% probability of the share price going DOWN when Li Auto releases earnings today. According to the Stockearning algorithm, the predicted first-day move is 6%, while the predicted move on the seventh day is 14%.
What analysts are saying
Citi analyst Jeff Chung raised his price target on Li Auto from $165 to $200 and maintained a "Buy" rating in the stock. In addition, Chung rolled Li Auto's valuation from 2022 to 2023, and he is bullish in the near-term outlook for China’s electric vehicle market. The analyst expects Chinese electric car makers to gain market share next year through 2023 and outperform the intense race to attain the best autonomous driving tech.
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