ajax loader

Loading...


x

How can we help you?

x
X

Ride-the-Wave Strategy – Best for Stock Traders

Ride-the-Wave targets multi-day price momentum following a company’s earnings announcement (EA). With this strategy:

  1. Buy a stock one day post-EA if a stock reacts positively post-earnings:
    1. Near the close of trading the EA-day for a pre-market-EA
    2. Near the close of the following day for a post-market-EA
  2. Sell-to-close after 7-10 days, or possibly earlier if a desired price target is reached

Similarly,

  1. short a stock one day post-EA if a stock reacts negatively post-earnings:
    1. near the close of trading the EA-day for a premarket-EA
    2. near the close of the following day for a post-market-EA
  2. then buy-to-close after 7-10 days, or possibly earlier if a desired price target is reached

Important: Ride-the-Wave is predicated on significant price momentum triggered by an EA. The 7-10 day scenario is the maximum trade hold-time. If you see post EA-momentum is halted or reversed by a significant opposite move, re-evaluate your presence in the trade.

This popular StockEarnings screen below will give you a list of stocks that historically exhibit significant price momentum following an EA for the next seven days:

  1. Stocks exhibiting positive post-EA price moves are buy-candidates
  2. Stocks exhibiting negative post-EA price moves are sell/short-candidates

The screen includes those stocks whose Earnings just came out in last two days.

Screen criteria:

  1. Earnings Date Start Date : Current Date + -1 Day
  2. Earnings Date End Date : Current Date + -2 Days
  3. Predicted Move (Next Day) Max : 7%
  4. Predicted Move (On 7th Day) Min : 7%

Strategy Guideline:

  1. Buy the stock if stock has reacted positively. Short the stock if stock has reacted negatively (see above).
  2. Close the position in 7-10 days, or possibly earlier based on price move.

Volatility Crush Strategy - Best for Options Traders

The Volatility Crush strategy is used with stocks that typically experience relatively low-to-moderate price moves (≤4%) following their Earnings Announcements (EA). The basic trade idea is to sell put or call options right before the EA, collecting a credit when options premium is very high due to elevated implied volatility (IV). You then close the position right after the EA by buying the option back much cheaper due to the significant drop in IV that occurs after the mystery of the EA disappears. In assessing this trade, you need to do your homework to ensure you collect sufficient premium to make the trade worthwhile.

This trade is practical due to the low-to-moderate price-move after the EA, which generally won’t significantly affect the options price, unlike an “action” stock, which experience great price moves post-EA. With these symbols, if you’re on the right side of the price move, that’s a great thing. But if you’re on the wrong side of the move, not so great. Consequently, by minimizing the effect of the post-EA price move, you have a much better chance to profit from the reduction in IV without it being ruined by a violent price move.

For this trade, open the position either (1) the night before the EA when the company announces earnings or (2) during the EA day when it announces post-market, generally capturing IV at or close to its peak.

For this trade, open the position either (1) the night before the EA when the company announces earnings or (2) during the EA day when it announces post-market, generally capturing IV at or close to its peak.

This popular stockearnings screen will give you a list of stocks which do not react more than 4% fpost-EA. It includes only those stocks whose earnings are releasing next day.

Screen criteria:

  1. Earnings Date Start Date : Current Date + 1
  2. Earnings Date End Date : Current Date + 1
  3. Predicted Move (Next Day) Max : 4%
  4. Options Type: Weekly

Strategy Guideline:

  1. Options Strategy: Sell Call and Put
  2. Options Strike Price: Current Stock Price – (% Predicated Move x 2)
  3. Expiration Date: It should generally be the closest expiry immediately after the EA.
  4. Buy Insurance: Buying back Call and Put at Strike price which 10% lower than Sell Strike Price is optional but recommended.

Watch Video for More Detail

Volatility Rush Strategy - Best for Options Traders

The Volatility Rush takes advantage of increasing options premiums into earnings announcements (EA) caused by an anticipated rise in Implied Volatility (IV). With this strategy, Buy a Call and Put at-the-money (a long straddle) 2-3 weeks before the EA when IV is lower. Sell the position either (1) the night before the EA when the company announces earnings pre-market, or (2) during the EA day when it announces post-market, generally capturing IV at or close to its peak.

This popular screen will give you a list of stocks whose Options premiums tend to rise into Earnings. It includes only those stocks whose Earnings are at least two weeks away from today.

Screen criteria:

  1. Earnings Date Start Date : Current Date + 15 Days
  2. Earnings Date End Date : Current Date + 30 Days
  3. Predicted Move (Next Day) Min : 5%
  4. Options Type: Weekly or Monthly if that lines up with the two to three-week lead-time for entering the trade

Strategy Guideline:

  1. Buy a Straddle at or close to the money two to three weeks pre-EA.
  2. Sell the position either the night before the EA when the company announces earnings pre-market, or during the EA day when it announces post-market.
  3. Expiration date should generally be the closest expiry immediately after the EA.
  4. Straddle price should not be more 60% of predicted move.

Predicted Move (Volatility)

Similar to Implied Volatility in Options. Expected volatility % based on our Proprietary Volatility Predication Model. We are expecting that stock price will likely to reach % in either direction by the end of next trading session after Earnings are released and not necessarily the closing volatility %.

Why is it important?

    This indicator helps

  1. Knowing expected volatility in stocks after Earnings helps to decide trading stocks before Earnings Announcement.
  2. Taking Advantage of volatility collapse following Earnings Results by using Advance Options strategies such as Spread and Straddles.

Since Last Earnings

Change in share price since last Earnings release.

Why is it Important?

When share has gained more than 10% since it's last Earning release, it tends to over react to minor bad news and give up some gains if not all. So, it contains more downside volatility than upside When share has dropped more than 10% since it's last Earning release, it tends to over react to minor good news and recover some drops if not all. So, it contains more upside volatility than downside.

EPS Surprise (%)

Occurs when a company's reported quarterly or annual profits are above or below analysts' expectations. Here is the formula to derive % EPS Surprice:

Actual EPS - Estimated EPS
------------------------------------- x 100
Estimated EPS

Why is it Important?

Earnings surprises can have a huge impact on a company's stock price. Several studies suggest that positive earnings surprises not only lead to an immediate hike in a stock's price, but also to a gradual increase over time. Hence, it's not surprising that some companies are known for routinely beating earning projections. A negative earnings surprise will usually result in a decline in share price.

Next Day Price Change (%)

Next Regular trading session Closing price following Earnings result.

For After Market Close Earnings, It is a next trading day closing price. For Before Market Open Earnings, It is the same trading day closing price.

Why is it Important?

Next Day price change is a reaction of Earnings result.

L Brands Inc. (NYSE:LB) Explodes On Personal Hygienic Products Boost, But For How Long?

Posted on Nov 20, 2020 by Neha Gupta

L Brands Inc. (NYSE:LB) Explodes On Personal Hygienic Products Boost, But For How Long?

A record-breaking quarter, driven by exceptional results and continued strength at Bath & Body Works, is the reason L Brands Inc. (NYSE:LB) is flirting with record highs in the market. Top and bottom line grew year over year in Q3, helped by improved performance at Victoria's Secret.

Q3 Earnings Beat

The solid performance in Q3 should continue in the busy holiday season. In addition, the company remains focused on containing costs, managing inventory, and optimizing capital expenditures. The company intends to achieve $400 million annual savings as it looks to strengthen its bottom line even further.

L Brand rallied by more than 10% after reporting earnings of $330.6 million or $1.17 a share compared to a net loss of $252 million reported a year ago. Sales climbed 14% to $3.06 billion, above analysts’ forecasts of $2.7 billion.

Victoria Secret Struggles

Sales were mostly driven by a surge in e-commerce operations as sales of personal hygiene products increased by 55%, helping offset a decline in clothing and lingerie sales. Personal hygiene products made up of hand sanitizers, and soaps climbed to $1.7 billion. While the Victoria Secret brand had higher sales in sleepwear and Loungewear, total sales fell 14% to $1.35 billion.

The Victoria Secret brand has been a big letdown in L Brands' portfolio. The brand has been struggling a great deal even before the pandemic struck. A deal to sell the unit for $525 million to private equity firm Sycamore Partners fell through after the equity firm sued, claiming that store closings and failure to pay rent were not part of the deal.

A resilient Bath & Body Works continues to shrug weakness in the Victoria Secret brand. The unit had an impressive third-quarter with sales growing 56% year over year, including 3% at physical location as Victoria Secret posted a 10% decline.

The pandemic has been a blessing in disguise, having allowed the Bath & Body Works segment to sell more soap and hand sanitizers. The big question now is how long L Brands will continue to depend on personal hygiene products for sales as the world moves past the pandemic.

Your FREE LB Report...

Get Your Free LB Stock Earnings Report Now.

Recent Articles

Neha has a passion for understanding the real value of stocks in publicly traded markets. She has a BA in Finance and a Masters in microeconomics. Anne has worked as a consultant advising buy-side firms and long-only equity fund managers. At stocksearning.com, she anchors our fundamental research writing desk.

Sign up today and get access to our Real-Time Trade Alerts and Research Tools

Join over 185,000+ investors who receive daily and weekly notable earnings alerts with predicted move

Disclaimer & Important Information

StockEarnings.com is owned and published by StockEarnings, Inc ("SE"). Their results are not typical and your experience will vary based upon your effort, education, business model, and market forces beyond our control.

SE is not an investment adviser or a broker-dealer. SE is not a financial adviser and does not provide any individualized investment advice. You should perform your own independent research on potential investments and consult with your financial adviser to determine whether an investment is appropriate given your financial needs, objectives, and risk appetite. Readers are advised that this publication is issued solely for informational purposes and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Inherent in any investment is the potential for loss.

None of the case studies, examples, testimonials, or investment return or income claims on this site or through this service is a guarantee of any income or investment results for you. Trading in securities involves risks, including the risk of losing some or all of your investment. For additional SE disclosures and policies, please click here.

By using the site, you are agreeing to our Terms & Conditions, Privacy Policy, and Disclaimer