Dollar General Corp (NYSE: DG) has confirmed that it will release its Q4 2021 earnings report on Thursday, March 17, 2022, before the opening bell.
What to look for:
Earnings: Stockearning’s Estimated EPS for Q4 2021 is expected to be $2.59 per share, representing a YoY decline of 1.1% from $2.62 per share reported a year ago. In the third quarter, the company produced an earnings surprise of2.97% with actual EPS: o0f $2.08 versus Estimated EPS of $2.02. Historical EPS performance shows that in the past 12 quarters, the company has topped estimates 23 times (63%), matched five times (13%), and missed eight times (22%).
Revenue: The company expects Q4 net sales of $8.69 billion. In the third quarter, the company had net sales of $8.5 billion, representing a YoY increase of 3.9%. Same-store sales dropped 0.6% and increased 11.6% YoY. The operating profit was $665.6 million, which was 7.8% of net sales.
Stock movement: DG shares have lost 6.3% since the company released its last earnings release. Interestingly, following the earnings release, the company's shares have been UP 26 times in the past 47 quarters. So, the historical price reaction suggests a 55% probability of the share price going UP following the earnings release. According to the Stockearning algorithm, the predicted volatility on the first day is +/-4%, while the predicted volatility on the seventh day is +/-4%.
What analysts are saying: Oppenheimer analyst Rupesh Parikh slashed his price target o9n DG from $270 t6o $240 and maintained a buy rating on the shares ahead of quarterly results. The analyst believes that Street projections are still too high. Therefore, he's lowering his DG forecasts to reflect higher gross margin shrinkage. Parikh anticipates a more difficult short-term setting for the name this time around. He would exploit any flaw in the earnings report.
JPMorgan analyst Matthew Boss lowered his price target in the stock from$272 to $263 and maintained a Buy rating on the shares. Deutsche Bank analyst Krisztina Katai lowered the stock's price target from $251 to $230 and kept a Buy rating on the stock. The analyst anticipates Q4 results to be in line with expectations in the discount space.
Dollar General's Q4 results release is due this week, and Morgan Stanley analyst Simeon Gutman expects the company's FY22 projection to be below Street expectations owing to unfavorable comparisons, rising costs, gas price volatility, and the firm's "typical conservatism." Although the market appears to understand this, he believes flattish comp sales and "mid $10" EPS in FY22 are "unlikely to be a positive catalyst." Dollar General shares still have a Hold rating from Gutman, with a price target of $5.22.
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