ajax loader

Loading...


Ride-the-Wave Strategy – Best for Stock Traders

Ride-the-Wave targets multi-day price momentum following a company’s earnings announcement (EA). With this strategy:

  1. Buy a stock one day post-EA if a stock reacts positively post-earnings:
    1. Near the close of trading the EA-day for a pre-market-EA
    2. Near the close of the following day for a post-market-EA
  2. Sell-to-close after 7-10 days, or possibly earlier if a desired price target is reached

Similarly,

  1. short a stock one day post-EA if a stock reacts negatively post-earnings:
    1. near the close of trading the EA-day for a premarket-EA
    2. near the close of the following day for a post-market-EA
  2. then buy-to-close after 7-10 days, or possibly earlier if a desired price target is reached

Important: Ride-the-Wave is predicated on significant price momentum triggered by an EA. The 7-10 day scenario is the maximum trade hold-time. If you see post EA-momentum is halted or reversed by a significant opposite move, re-evaluate your presence in the trade.

This popular StockEarnings screen below will give you a list of stocks that historically exhibit significant price momentum following an EA for the next seven days:

  1. Stocks exhibiting positive post-EA price moves are buy-candidates
  2. Stocks exhibiting negative post-EA price moves are sell/short-candidates

The screen includes those stocks whose Earnings just came out in last two days.

Screen criteria:

  1. Earnings Date Start Date : Current Date + -1 Day
  2. Earnings Date End Date : Current Date + -2 Days
  3. Predicted Move (Next Day) Max : 7%
  4. Predicted Move (On 7th Day) Min : 7%

Strategy Guideline:

  1. Buy the stock if stock has reacted positively. Short the stock if stock has reacted negatively (see above).
  2. Close the position in 7-10 days, or possibly earlier based on price move.

Volatility Crush Strategy - Best for Options Traders

The Volatility Crush strategy is used with stocks that typically experience relatively low-to-moderate price moves (≤4%) following their Earnings Announcements (EA). The basic trade idea is to sell put or call options right before the EA, collecting a credit when options premium is very high due to elevated implied volatility (IV). You then close the position right after the EA by buying the option back much cheaper due to the significant drop in IV that occurs after the mystery of the EA disappears. In assessing this trade, you need to do your homework to ensure you collect sufficient premium to make the trade worthwhile.

This trade is practical due to the low-to-moderate price-move after the EA, which generally won’t significantly affect the options price, unlike an “action” stock, which experience great price moves post-EA. With these symbols, if you’re on the right side of the price move, that’s a great thing. But if you’re on the wrong side of the move, not so great. Consequently, by minimizing the effect of the post-EA price move, you have a much better chance to profit from the reduction in IV without it being ruined by a violent price move.

For this trade, open the position either (1) the night before the EA when the company announces earnings or (2) during the EA day when it announces post-market, generally capturing IV at or close to its peak.

For this trade, open the position either (1) the night before the EA when the company announces earnings or (2) during the EA day when it announces post-market, generally capturing IV at or close to its peak.

This popular stockearnings screen will give you a list of stocks which do not react more than 4% fpost-EA. It includes only those stocks whose earnings are releasing next day.

Screen criteria:

  1. Earnings Date Start Date : Current Date + 1
  2. Earnings Date End Date : Current Date + 1
  3. Predicted Move (Next Day) Max : 4%
  4. Options Type: Weekly

Strategy Guideline:

  1. Options Strategy: Sell Call and Put
  2. Options Strike Price: Current Stock Price – (% Predicated Move x 2)
  3. Expiration Date: It should generally be the closest expiry immediately after the EA.
  4. Buy Insurance: Buying back Call and Put at Strike price which 10% lower than Sell Strike Price is optional but recommended.

Watch Video for More Detail

Volatility Rush Strategy - Best for Options Traders

The Volatility Rush takes advantage of increasing options premiums into earnings announcements (EA) caused by an anticipated rise in Implied Volatility (IV). With this strategy, Buy a Call and Put at-the-money (a long straddle) 2-3 weeks before the EA when IV is lower. Sell the position either (1) the night before the EA when the company announces earnings pre-market, or (2) during the EA day when it announces post-market, generally capturing IV at or close to its peak.

This popular screen will give you a list of stocks whose Options premiums tend to rise into Earnings. It includes only those stocks whose Earnings are at least two weeks away from today.

Screen criteria:

  1. Earnings Date Start Date : Current Date + 15 Days
  2. Earnings Date End Date : Current Date + 30 Days
  3. Predicted Move (Next Day) Min : 5%
  4. Options Type: Weekly or Monthly if that lines up with the two to three-week lead-time for entering the trade

Strategy Guideline:

  1. Buy a Straddle at or close to the money two to three weeks pre-EA.
  2. Sell the position either the night before the EA when the company announces earnings pre-market, or during the EA day when it announces post-market.
  3. Expiration date should generally be the closest expiry immediately after the EA.
  4. Straddle price should not be more 60% of predicted move.

Predicted Move (Volatility)

Similar to Implied Volatility in Options. Expected volatility % based on our Proprietary Volatility Predication Model. We are expecting that stock price will likely to reach % in either direction by the end of next trading session after Earnings are released and not necessarily the closing volatility %.

Why is it important?

    This indicator helps

  1. Knowing expected volatility in stocks after Earnings helps to decide trading stocks before Earnings Announcement.
  2. Taking Advantage of volatility collapse following Earnings Results by using Advance Options strategies such as Spread and Straddles.

Since Last Earnings

Change in share price since last Earnings release.

Why is it Important?

When share has gained more than 10% since it's last Earning release, it tends to over react to minor bad news and give up some gains if not all. So, it contains more downside volatility than upside When share has dropped more than 10% since it's last Earning release, it tends to over react to minor good news and recover some drops if not all. So, it contains more upside volatility than downside.

EPS Surprise (%)

Occurs when a company's reported quarterly or annual profits are above or below analysts' expectations. Here is the formula to derive % EPS Surprice:

Actual EPS - Estimated EPS
------------------------------------- x 100
Estimated EPS

Why is it Important?

Earnings surprises can have a huge impact on a company's stock price. Several studies suggest that positive earnings surprises not only lead to an immediate hike in a stock's price, but also to a gradual increase over time. Hence, it's not surprising that some companies are known for routinely beating earning projections. A negative earnings surprise will usually result in a decline in share price.

Next Day Price Change (%)

Next Regular trading session Closing price following Earnings result.

For After Market Close Earnings, It is a next trading day closing price. For Before Market Open Earnings, It is the same trading day closing price.

Why is it Important?

Next Day price change is a reaction of Earnings result.

Chevron Corporation (NYSE: CVX) Earnings Expectation, Q4 2021 Earnings of $3.07 per share on revenue of $45.01 Billion

Posted on Jan 28, 2022 by Neha Gupta

Chevron Corporation (NYSE: CVX) Earnings Expectation, Q4 2021 Earnings of $3.07 per share on revenue of $45.01 Billion

Chevron Corporation (NYSE: CVX) has confirmed the release date for its Q4 2021 earnings, which will be on Friday, January 28, 2022, before the market opens.

What to looking for

The company has continued to exercise capital discipline and manage its portfolio to advance its lower carbon and high return objectives. When the company reported its Q3 2021 report, it indicated that it had cut capital spending by 22%. Investors will be keen on these metrics and earnings growth when the company releases the results on Friday.

Earnings: Stockearning’s estimated EPS for Q4 2021 will be $3.07 per share, representing a YoY increase of 308%. In the last quarter, the company was expected to report $2.21 per share earnings but produced earnings of $2.96, representing a 33.94% earnings surprise. In addition, historical EPS performance shows that in the past 12 quarters shows that the company has beat estimates nine times (75%) and lost thrice (25%).

Revenue: For the current quarter, the company expects revenue of $45.01 billion, representing a YoY increase of 78.3%. In the last quarter, the company has sales and operating revenues of $43 billion relative to $24 billion a year before. The average sales price per crude oil and natural gas liquids barrel was $58 in Q3, while natural gas sales price was $3.25 per thousand cubic feet. Earnings in the third quarter were the highest since Q1 2013, attributed to improving market conditions, low-cost structure, and strong operational performance.

Stock movement: CVX shares have gained 12.2% since the company released its third-quarter earnings. However, CVX shares have been DOWN 27 times out of the past 48 quarters. So, the historical price reaction suggests a 56% probability of the share price going DOWN once the company reports its fiscal Q4 2021 earnings. According to the Stockearning algorithm, the predicted first-day move is 1%, while the predicted move on the seventh day is 2%.

What analysts are saying

Truist analyst Neal Dingmann raised his price target in CVX from $150 to $167 and maintained a Buy rating in the stock as part of his expansive research note covering his Exploration & Production group model. As he boosts his 2022 oil price deck by roughly 10% and his 2023 deck by around 8%, the analyst adds several oil-weighted E&P companies to justify higher price targets. Whereas the oil strip continues strongly to be backwardated, Dingmann notes that the present natural gas strip has "largely flattened out," resulting in price target reductions across the majority of his tracked natural gas stocks.

Wells Fargo analyst Roger Read also upgraded CVX from Hold to Buy and also raised his price target from $115 to $140. Read cited solid cash flow generation plus the yield and cash returns to stockholders amid a relatively disciplined CAPEX, solid execution anticipated to continue, and a robust balance sheet.

RBC Capital analyst Biraj Borkhataria upgraded CVX from Hold to Buy and also raised his price target from $130 to $145. In a research note, the analyst told investors that he believes the company is in a better position to leverage the robust commodity cycle in the coming years owing to its business plans, which suggest stability in its portfolio relative to rivals. The analyst said that "certainty warrants a premium valuation," and the macro backdrop is highly supportive of the sector.

Related News

McDonald’s Corporation (NYSE: MCD) Earnings Expectation, Q4 2021 EPS of $2.31

Boeing Company (NYSE: BA) Earnings Expectation, Earnings of $0.15 Driven By Solid Commercial And Defense Deliveries

Neha has a passion for understanding the real value of stocks in publicly traded markets. She has a BA in Finance and a Masters in microeconomics. Anne has worked as a consultant advising buy-side firms and long-only equity fund managers. At stocksearning.com, she anchors our fundamental research writing desk.

Sign up today and get access to our Real-Time Trade Alerts and Research Tools

Join over 185,000+ investors who receive daily and weekly notable earnings alerts with predicted move