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Ride-the-Wave Strategy – Best for Stock Traders

Ride-the-Wave targets multi-day price momentum following a company’s earnings announcement (EA). With this strategy:

  1. Buy a stock one day post-EA if a stock reacts positively post-earnings:
    1. Near the close of trading the EA-day for a pre-market-EA
    2. Near the close of the following day for a post-market-EA
  2. Sell-to-close after 7-10 days, or possibly earlier if a desired price target is reached

Similarly,

  1. short a stock one day post-EA if a stock reacts negatively post-earnings:
    1. near the close of trading the EA-day for a premarket-EA
    2. near the close of the following day for a post-market-EA
  2. then buy-to-close after 7-10 days, or possibly earlier if a desired price target is reached

Important: Ride-the-Wave is predicated on significant price momentum triggered by an EA. The 7-10 day scenario is the maximum trade hold-time. If you see post EA-momentum is halted or reversed by a significant opposite move, re-evaluate your presence in the trade.

This popular StockEarnings screen below will give you a list of stocks that historically exhibit significant price momentum following an EA for the next seven days:

  1. Stocks exhibiting positive post-EA price moves are buy-candidates
  2. Stocks exhibiting negative post-EA price moves are sell/short-candidates

The screen includes those stocks whose Earnings just came out in last two days.

Screen criteria:

  1. Earnings Date Start Date : Current Date + -1 Day
  2. Earnings Date End Date : Current Date + -2 Days
  3. Predicted Move (Next Day) Max : 7%
  4. Predicted Move (On 7th Day) Min : 7%

Strategy Guideline:

  1. Buy the stock if stock has reacted positively. Short the stock if stock has reacted negatively (see above).
  2. Close the position in 7-10 days, or possibly earlier based on price move.

Volatility Crush Strategy - Best for Options Traders

The Volatility Crush strategy is used with stocks that typically experience relatively low-to-moderate price moves (≤4%) following their Earnings Announcements (EA). The basic trade idea is to sell put or call options right before the EA, collecting a credit when options premium is very high due to elevated implied volatility (IV). You then close the position right after the EA by buying the option back much cheaper due to the significant drop in IV that occurs after the mystery of the EA disappears. In assessing this trade, you need to do your homework to ensure you collect sufficient premium to make the trade worthwhile.

This trade is practical due to the low-to-moderate price-move after the EA, which generally won’t significantly affect the options price, unlike an “action” stock, which experience great price moves post-EA. With these symbols, if you’re on the right side of the price move, that’s a great thing. But if you’re on the wrong side of the move, not so great. Consequently, by minimizing the effect of the post-EA price move, you have a much better chance to profit from the reduction in IV without it being ruined by a violent price move.

For this trade, open the position either (1) the night before the EA when the company announces earnings or (2) during the EA day when it announces post-market, generally capturing IV at or close to its peak.

For this trade, open the position either (1) the night before the EA when the company announces earnings or (2) during the EA day when it announces post-market, generally capturing IV at or close to its peak.

This popular stockearnings screen will give you a list of stocks which do not react more than 4% fpost-EA. It includes only those stocks whose earnings are releasing next day.

Screen criteria:

  1. Earnings Date Start Date : Current Date + 1
  2. Earnings Date End Date : Current Date + 1
  3. Predicted Move (Next Day) Max : 4%
  4. Options Type: Weekly

Strategy Guideline:

  1. Options Strategy: Sell Call and Put
  2. Options Strike Price: Current Stock Price – (% Predicated Move x 2)
  3. Expiration Date: It should generally be the closest expiry immediately after the EA.
  4. Buy Insurance: Buying back Call and Put at Strike price which 10% lower than Sell Strike Price is optional but recommended.

Watch Video for More Detail

Volatility Rush Strategy - Best for Options Traders

The Volatility Rush takes advantage of increasing options premiums into earnings announcements (EA) caused by an anticipated rise in Implied Volatility (IV). With this strategy, Buy a Call and Put at-the-money (a long straddle) 2-3 weeks before the EA when IV is lower. Sell the position either (1) the night before the EA when the company announces earnings pre-market, or (2) during the EA day when it announces post-market, generally capturing IV at or close to its peak.

This popular screen will give you a list of stocks whose Options premiums tend to rise into Earnings. It includes only those stocks whose Earnings are at least two weeks away from today.

Screen criteria:

  1. Earnings Date Start Date : Current Date + 15 Days
  2. Earnings Date End Date : Current Date + 30 Days
  3. Predicted Move (Next Day) Min : 5%
  4. Options Type: Weekly or Monthly if that lines up with the two to three-week lead-time for entering the trade

Strategy Guideline:

  1. Buy a Straddle at or close to the money two to three weeks pre-EA.
  2. Sell the position either the night before the EA when the company announces earnings pre-market, or during the EA day when it announces post-market.
  3. Expiration date should generally be the closest expiry immediately after the EA.
  4. Straddle price should not be more 60% of predicted move.

Predicted Move (Volatility)

Similar to Implied Volatility in Options. Expected volatility % based on our Proprietary Volatility Predication Model. We are expecting that stock price will likely to reach % in either direction by the end of next trading session after Earnings are released and not necessarily the closing volatility %.

Why is it important?

    This indicator helps

  1. Knowing expected volatility in stocks after Earnings helps to decide trading stocks before Earnings Announcement.
  2. Taking Advantage of volatility collapse following Earnings Results by using Advance Options strategies such as Spread and Straddles.

Since Last Earnings

Change in share price since last Earnings release.

Why is it Important?

When share has gained more than 10% since it's last Earning release, it tends to over react to minor bad news and give up some gains if not all. So, it contains more downside volatility than upside When share has dropped more than 10% since it's last Earning release, it tends to over react to minor good news and recover some drops if not all. So, it contains more upside volatility than downside.

EPS Surprise (%)

Occurs when a company's reported quarterly or annual profits are above or below analysts' expectations. Here is the formula to derive % EPS Surprice:

Actual EPS - Estimated EPS
------------------------------------- x 100
Estimated EPS

Why is it Important?

Earnings surprises can have a huge impact on a company's stock price. Several studies suggest that positive earnings surprises not only lead to an immediate hike in a stock's price, but also to a gradual increase over time. Hence, it's not surprising that some companies are known for routinely beating earning projections. A negative earnings surprise will usually result in a decline in share price.

Next Day Price Change (%)

Next Regular trading session Closing price following Earnings result.

For After Market Close Earnings, It is a next trading day closing price. For Before Market Open Earnings, It is the same trading day closing price.

Why is it Important?

Next Day price change is a reaction of Earnings result.

Williams Sonoma Inc. (NYSE: WSM) Produces Mixed Q4 2021 Results

Posted on Mar 17, 2022 by Neha Gupta

Williams Sonoma Inc. (NYSE: WSM) Produces Mixed Q4 2021 Results

Williams Sonoma Inc. (NYSE: WSM) announced its Q4 2021 earnings and revenue results topped earnings estimates, but sales were weaker than expected.

What to look for: The company's CEO, Laura Alber, said that their Q4 results demonstrated the resilience of their business model as the home furnishing retailer navigated unprecedented supply chain disruptions, labor and material shortages, and capacity limitations from high consumer demand.

Earnings: Stockearning's Estimated EPS was pegged at $4.78 per share, but the company produced actual EPS of $5.42 per share. A year ago, the company had EPS of $3.95 per share. The quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of 13.39%. In the third quarter, the cookware and home furnishings seller was expected to deliver EPS of $3.11 but produced actual EPS of $3.32, which is a 6.75% surprise. Historical EPS Performance for the past 12 quarters, the company has topped earnings 31 times (86%), matched four times (11%), and missed once (2%).

Revenue: The home furnishings seller posted sales of $2.5 billion in the fourth quarter missing estimates by 2.77%. In the quarter ended January 2021, the company had reported revenue of $2.29 billion. Over the past four quarters, William-Sonoma has topped consensus sales estimates thrice. Sales were up during the quarter across all brands, with Pottery barn leading in growth. The brand reported revenue of $921 million compared to $799 million a year ago whole comparable brand revenue was up 10.8%, with West Elm at 18.3, Pottery Barn at 16.2%, and William Sonoma at 18.3%.

Stock movement: WSM shares have lost 32.2% since the company released its last earnings release. Interestingly, following the earnings release, the company's shares have been UP 24 times in the past 48 quarters. So, the historical price reaction suggests a 5o% probability of the share price going UP following the earnings release. According to the Stockearning algorithm, the predicted volatility on the first day is +/-6%, while the predicted volatility on the seventh day is +/-7%.

What analysts are saying: Wells Fargo analyst Zachary Fadem slashed his price target on WSM from $180 to $160 and maintained a Hold rating on the shares ahead of the earnings report. Checks by the analyst indicate that the category declined in Q4, that inflation is rising, and that supply chain difficulties are likely driving increased levels of sales/margin fluctuation. Fadem prefers RH’s (RH) unique growth catalysts, luxury positioning, reduced marketing, and proven pricing strength. Gordon Haskett analyst Chuck Grom upgraded the stock from Hold to Buy but lowered his price target from $205 to $200.

RBC Capital analyst Steven Shemesh upgraded the stock from Hold to Buy but lowered his price target from $219 to $202. In a research note to investors, Shemesh indicated that he feels there is adequate top-line flexibility to produce on consensus EPS easily. However, margins are slightly less than projected, and the name's top-line upside is undervalued.

Citi analyst Steven Zaccone slashed his price target on the stock from $225 to $165 but maintained a Hold rating in the shares. According to the analyst, consumer sentiment has turned toward "defensive, steady margin industries" such as home maintenance and automotive parts sales, leaving a minimal margin for mistakes in terms of value for the hardlines retail division. He does feel, however, that the current market downturn in growth stocks and the uncertainty surrounding 2022 present some intriguing risk/reward possibilities for long-term investors.

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Neha has a passion for understanding the real value of stocks in publicly traded markets. She has a BA in Finance and a Masters in microeconomics. Anne has worked as a consultant advising buy-side firms and long-only equity fund managers. At stocksearning.com, she anchors our fundamental research writing desk.

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