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Ride-the-Wave Strategy – Best for Stock Traders

Ride-the-Wave targets multi-day price momentum following a company’s earnings announcement (EA). With this strategy:

  1. Buy a stock one day post-EA if a stock reacts positively post-earnings:
    1. Near the close of trading the EA-day for a pre-market-EA
    2. Near the close of the following day for a post-market-EA
  2. Sell-to-close after 7-10 days, or possibly earlier if a desired price target is reached

Similarly,

  1. short a stock one day post-EA if a stock reacts negatively post-earnings:
    1. near the close of trading the EA-day for a premarket-EA
    2. near the close of the following day for a post-market-EA
  2. then buy-to-close after 7-10 days, or possibly earlier if a desired price target is reached

Important: Ride-the-Wave is predicated on significant price momentum triggered by an EA. The 7-10 day scenario is the maximum trade hold-time. If you see post EA-momentum is halted or reversed by a significant opposite move, re-evaluate your presence in the trade.

This popular StockEarnings screen below will give you a list of stocks that historically exhibit significant price momentum following an EA for the next seven days:

  1. Stocks exhibiting positive post-EA price moves are buy-candidates
  2. Stocks exhibiting negative post-EA price moves are sell/short-candidates

The screen includes those stocks whose Earnings just came out in last two days.

Screen criteria:

  1. Earnings Date Start Date : Current Date + -1 Day
  2. Earnings Date End Date : Current Date + -2 Days
  3. Predicted Move (Next Day) Max : 7%
  4. Predicted Move (On 7th Day) Min : 7%

Strategy Guideline:

  1. Buy the stock if stock has reacted positively. Short the stock if stock has reacted negatively (see above).
  2. Close the position in 7-10 days, or possibly earlier based on price move.

Volatility Crush Strategy - Best for Options Traders

The Volatility Crush strategy is used with stocks that typically experience relatively low-to-moderate price moves (≤4%) following their Earnings Announcements (EA). The basic trade idea is to sell put or call options right before the EA, collecting a credit when options premium is very high due to elevated implied volatility (IV). You then close the position right after the EA by buying the option back much cheaper due to the significant drop in IV that occurs after the mystery of the EA disappears. In assessing this trade, you need to do your homework to ensure you collect sufficient premium to make the trade worthwhile.

This trade is practical due to the low-to-moderate price-move after the EA, which generally won’t significantly affect the options price, unlike an “action” stock, which experience great price moves post-EA. With these symbols, if you’re on the right side of the price move, that’s a great thing. But if you’re on the wrong side of the move, not so great. Consequently, by minimizing the effect of the post-EA price move, you have a much better chance to profit from the reduction in IV without it being ruined by a violent price move.

For this trade, open the position either (1) the night before the EA when the company announces earnings or (2) during the EA day when it announces post-market, generally capturing IV at or close to its peak.

For this trade, open the position either (1) the night before the EA when the company announces earnings or (2) during the EA day when it announces post-market, generally capturing IV at or close to its peak.

This popular stockearnings screen will give you a list of stocks which do not react more than 4% fpost-EA. It includes only those stocks whose earnings are releasing next day.

Screen criteria:

  1. Earnings Date Start Date : Current Date + 1
  2. Earnings Date End Date : Current Date + 1
  3. Predicted Move (Next Day) Max : 4%
  4. Options Type: Weekly

Strategy Guideline:

  1. Options Strategy: Sell Call and Put
  2. Options Strike Price: Current Stock Price – (% Predicated Move x 2)
  3. Expiration Date: It should generally be the closest expiry immediately after the EA.
  4. Buy Insurance: Buying back Call and Put at Strike price which 10% lower than Sell Strike Price is optional but recommended.

Watch Video for More Detail

Volatility Rush Strategy - Best for Options Traders

The Volatility Rush takes advantage of increasing options premiums into earnings announcements (EA) caused by an anticipated rise in Implied Volatility (IV). With this strategy, Buy a Call and Put at-the-money (a long straddle) 2-3 weeks before the EA when IV is lower. Sell the position either (1) the night before the EA when the company announces earnings pre-market, or (2) during the EA day when it announces post-market, generally capturing IV at or close to its peak.

This popular screen will give you a list of stocks whose Options premiums tend to rise into Earnings. It includes only those stocks whose Earnings are at least two weeks away from today.

Screen criteria:

  1. Earnings Date Start Date : Current Date + 15 Days
  2. Earnings Date End Date : Current Date + 30 Days
  3. Predicted Move (Next Day) Min : 5%
  4. Options Type: Weekly or Monthly if that lines up with the two to three-week lead-time for entering the trade

Strategy Guideline:

  1. Buy a Straddle at or close to the money two to three weeks pre-EA.
  2. Sell the position either the night before the EA when the company announces earnings pre-market, or during the EA day when it announces post-market.
  3. Expiration date should generally be the closest expiry immediately after the EA.
  4. Straddle price should not be more 60% of predicted move.

Since Last Earnings

Change in share price since last Earnings release.

Why is it Important?

When share has gained more than 10% since it's last Earning release, it tends to over react to minor bad news and give up some gains if not all. So, it contains more downside volatility than upside When share has dropped more than 10% since it's last Earning release, it tends to over react to minor good news and recover some drops if not all. So, it contains more upside volatility than downside.

EPS Surprise (%)

Occurs when a company's reported quarterly or annual profits are above or below analysts' expectations. Here is the formula to derive % EPS Surprice:

Actual EPS - Estimated EPS
------------------------------------- x 100
Estimated EPS

Why is it Important?

Earnings surprises can have a huge impact on a company's stock price. Several studies suggest that positive earnings surprises not only lead to an immediate hike in a stock's price, but also to a gradual increase over time. Hence, it's not surprising that some companies are known for routinely beating earning projections. A negative earnings surprise will usually result in a decline in share price.

Next Day Price Change (%)

Next Regular trading session Closing price following Earnings result.

For After Market Close Earnings, It is a next trading day closing price. For Before Market Open Earnings, It is the same trading day closing price.

Why is it Important?

Next Day price change is a reaction of Earnings result.

Levi Strauss & Co. (NYSE:LEVI) is Wearing Thin, But Beating the Number

Posted on Apr 08, 2020 by StockEarnings Staff

Levi Strauss & Co. (NYSE:LEVI) is Wearing Thin, But Beating the Number

Levi Strauss & Co. (NYSE:LEVI) hit the wires on Tuesday afternoon following the closing bell with the company’s Q1 report card. The company reported a clear beat, with earnings of $0.40 per share, $0.05 better than the S&P Capital IQ Consensus of $0.35 on revenues growth of 4.9% year/year to $1.51 bln (which was versus the $1.46 bln S&P Capital IQ Consensus). Note, this was a quarter that closed for the company in February, so it was largely not impacted by the COVID-19 outbreak in the US and EU, and did include 2019 Black Friday and holiday season sales.

Hence, it’s not exactly a tremendously powerful indicator of how this company is faring in the world as it is now. But we would note that the company made a special effort to point out that ecommerce was a primary driver for Q1 success.

In addition, the company’s comments on liquidity were probably the most disturbing point of contact between investors and management in the report: "We believe we will have adequate liquidity over the next 12 months to operate our business and to meet our cash requirements. As of February 23, 2020, we had cash and cash equivalents totaling approximately $873.6 million, short-term investments of $84.0 million and unused availability under the credit facility of $819.5 million, resulting in a total liquidity position of approximately $1.8 billion... We are also taking preemptive action to preserve our liquidity and manage our cash flow, such as reducing our discretionary spending, revisiting our investment strategies, suspending our share buyback program until further notice, and reducing payroll costs, including through employee furloughs and pay cuts... In April, 2020, as a precautionary measure to maximize our liquidity and to increase our available cash on hand, we drew down $300 million on our senior secured revolving credit facility. The proceeds will be available to be used for working capital, general corporate or other purposes."

However, the stock has been cut in half since February, so the lack of a bearish response can be counted in the “baked in” category.

Levi Strauss & Co. (NYSE:LEVI) operates as an apparel company. It designs, markets, and sells jeans, casual and dress pants, tops, shorts, skirts, jackets, footwear, and related accessories for men, women, and children in the Americas, Europe, and Asia.

The company sells its products under the Levi's, Dockers, Signature by Levi Strauss & Co., and Denizen brands; and also licenses its Levi's and Dockers trademarks for various product categories, including footwear, belts, wallets and bags, outerwear, sweaters, dress shirts, kids wear, sleepwear, and hosiery.

The company sells its products through third-party retailers, such as department stores, specialty retailers, third-party e-commerce sites, and franchisees who operate brand-dedicated stores; and directly to consumers through various formats, including company-operated mainline and outlet stores, company-operated e-commerce sites, and select shop-in-shops located in department stores and other third-party retail locations.

It operates approximately 3,000 retail stores and shop-in-shops.

StockEarnings Staff

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