Following Earnings result, share price were DOWN 13 times out of last 22 Qtrs
So, Historical price reaction suggests 59% probability for share price to go DOWN following ER!
More on :Yahoo Finance
Predicted Move (Volatility)
Predicted Move (Volatility) Similar to Implied Volatility in Options. The predicted move (volatility) % is based on our proprietary Volatility Prediction Model.
We are expecting that stock price may likely move % in either direction by the end of the next regular trading session in Earnings reaction.
The move may not necessarily be the closing volatility %.
Why is it Important?
1. Knowing expected volatility in stocks in Earnings reaction helps in deciding whether to trade stocks or not prior to Earnings announcement.
2. Taking advantage of volatility collapse following Earnings results by using Options strategies such as Spread and Straddle
Predicted Move (Volatility) - 7th Days
Expected volatility on 7th day since Earnings results.
% Since Last Earnings
Change in share price since last Earnings release.
When share has gained more than 10% since it's last Earning release, it tends to
over react to minor bad news and give up some gains if not all. So, it contains
more downside volatility than upside
When share has dropped more than 10% since it's last Earning release, it tends to
over react to minor good news and recover some drops if not all. So, it contains
more upside volatility than downside.
Historical Volatility Next Day
Next Day Volatility (% Day High - % Day Low). It is a different from % closing price.
It is a very helpful indicator for gap trading because you could have a company
that swings 5% +- but their final percent move is only a fraction.
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